Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (41%) · Xipto Esports at 77¢ · $74K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports77¢PlayTime23¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 41%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.6K

Combined PnL

-$265.32

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 76.5¢

+30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

7 of 17 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports77%

PlayTime24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports7 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares40,795

Combined PnL+$2.6K

PlayTime10 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares49,193

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Xipto Esports — 41%PlayTime — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Xipto Esportsavg 57.3¢	$12.6K	$9.4K	+$285.01	19% 17-71 (88)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 62.7¢	$7.3K	$7.9K	+$633.72	69% 477-219 (696)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 62.7¢	$5.6K	$6.2K	+$606.19
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 30¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$27.53
GE GeorgeRe	Xipto Esportsavg 54.3¢	$5.0K	$6.4K	+$1.4K	53% 690-623 (1313)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	PlayTimeavg 32.1¢	$6.1K	$5.8K	-$295.42	45% 408-489 (897)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 55.2¢	$6.6K	$5.6K	-$904.78	48% 477-520 (997)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 57¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$637.65
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 55.2¢	$3.4K	$1.9K	$-1.5K
QW qwerqr1251251	Xipto Esportsavg 58.6¢	$4.6K	$5.5K	+$854.88	11% 17-135 (152)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 56.4¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$602.33	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 56.4¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$172.62
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 33¢	$1.8K	$2.6K	+$774.95
Hawk.liveARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 57¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$262.54	56% 658-509 (1167)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 57¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$236.12
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 38.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$26.41
Medo3DCTR	PlayTimeavg 49.3¢	$4.3K	$3.4K	-$953.19	5% 10-205 (215)
PL plustiCTR	PlayTimeavg 45.2¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$489.24	16% 6-31 (37)
YA yadens	Xipto Esportsavg 59.9¢	$5.0K	$2.8K	+$225.73	15% 13-73 (86)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Xipto Esportsavg 55.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$180.65	56% 3788-2950 (6738)
XU xuxuntao	Xipto Esportsavg 65¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$107.24	32% 19-40 (59)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	Xipto Esportsavg 77.1¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$198.03	7% 5-62 (67)
A3 a37932699CTR	PlayTimeavg 40.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$172.2	1% 2-179 (181)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	PlayTimeavg 46.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.25	1% 2-286 (288)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 56.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$27.11	7% 15-201 (216)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 56.9¢	$624.98	$670.56	+$45.58
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 40.7¢	$435.99	$417.52	-$18.47
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 33¢	$659.98	$999.97	+$339.99	3% 3-89 (92)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 33¢	$329.99	$529.98	+$199.99
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 33¢	$329.99	$469.99	+$140
Tolkonevminus2CTR	PlayTimeavg 50.3¢	$5.5K	$831.82	-$702.62	30% 20-46 (66)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	PlayTimeavg 47¢	$1.2K	$810.17	-$411.72	6% 11-177 (188)
WH whosayCTR	PlayTimeavg 43.5¢	$1.0K	$755.2	-$270.73	— 12-6 (18)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 31.7¢	$581.08	$641.75	+$60.67	47% 68-76 (144)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 31.7¢	$491.2	$496.23	+$5.03
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 42¢	$89.88	$145.52	+$55.64
PA pauleta23CTR	PlayTimeavg 28.9¢	$215.75	$232.6	+$25.37	21% 107-413 (520)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 57.1¢	$137.55	$140.05	+$2.5	50% 138-137 (275)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 57.1¢	$88.94	$97.3	+$8.36
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 42.6¢	$48.61	$42.75	-$5.86
forsenxdCTR<$100	PlayTimeavg 52¢	$10.82	$9.78	-$1.04	49% 353-369 (722)

UNIVERSEMVP

Xipto Esports

Invested

$12,621.5

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$285.01

Record

19%

17-71 (88)

gxxyyARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$7,254.84

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$633.72

Record

69%

477-219 (696)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$5,602.9662.7¢+$606.19

PlayTime$1,651.8930¢+$27.53

GeorgeRe

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,024.83

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

690-623 (1313)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$6,085.41

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$295.42

Record

45%

408-489 (897)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$6,558.47

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$904.78

Record

48%

477-520 (997)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$3,026.2757¢+$637.65

PlayTime$3,449.5255.2¢$-1.5K

qwerqr1251251

Xipto Esports

Invested

$4,599

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$854.88

Record

11%

17-135 (152)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$4,686.8

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$602.33

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$2,861.2456.4¢-$172.62

PlayTime$1,825.5633¢+$774.95

Hawk.liveARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$4,610.95

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$262.54

Record

56%

658-509 (1167)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$3,385.5957¢+$236.12

PlayTime$1,012.5438.3¢+$26.41

Medo3DCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$4,345.95

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$953.19

Record

10-205 (215)

plustiCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$3,566.08

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$489.24

Record

16%

6-31 (37)

yadens

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$225.73

Record

15%

13-73 (86)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,003.68

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$180.65

Record

56%

3788-2950 (6738)

xuxuntao

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$107.24

Record

32%

19-40 (59)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$198.03

Record

5-62 (67)

a37932699CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,068.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$172.2

Record

2-179 (181)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,200.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.25

Record

2-286 (288)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,060.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$27.11

Record

15-201 (216)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$624.9856.9¢+$45.58

PlayTime$435.9940.7¢-$18.47

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$659.98

Value

$999.97

PnL

+$339.99

Record

3-89 (92)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$329.9933¢+$199.99

PlayTime$329.9933¢+$140

Tolkonevminus2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$5,512.83

Value

$831.82

PnL

-$702.62

Record

30%

20-46 (66)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,230.58

Value

$810.17

PnL

-$411.72

Record

11-177 (188)

whosayCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,025.93

Value

$755.2

PnL

-$270.73

Record

—

12-6 (18)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$581.08

Value

$641.75

PnL

+$60.67

Record

47%

68-76 (144)

Both legs:

PlayTime$491.231.7¢+$5.03

Xipto Esports$89.8842¢+$55.64

pauleta23CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$215.75

Value

$232.6

PnL

+$25.37

Record

21%

107-413 (520)

lryyyARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$137.55

Value

$140.05

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

138-137 (275)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$88.9457.1¢+$8.36

PlayTime$48.6142.6¢-$5.86

forsenxdCTR<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$10.82

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$1.04

Record

49%

353-369 (722)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

7 of 17 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.