Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors PlayTime (54%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (43%) · Xipto Esports at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Xipto Esports
7
Xipto Esports 43%
$5.6K
$84.99
45.7¢ → 46.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralXipto Esports at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Xipto Esportsavg 46¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$50.06 | 63% 1075-638 (1713) |
JU JuiceFarmCTR | Xipto Esportsavg 42.8¢ | $516.13 | $555.17 | +$39.04 | — 4-2 (6) |
GA Gaditima | PlayTimeavg 54¢ | $177.56 | $175.91 | -$1.64 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
OM omnibus-076daa | PlayTimeavg 54¢ | $109 | $106.98 | -$2.02 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
 forsenxd<$100 | PlayTimeavg 53¢ | $40.53 | $40.53 | +$0 | 49% 353-369 (722) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Xipto Esportsavg 47¢ | $28.2 | $27.9 | -$0.3 | 49% 29-30 (59) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | PlayTimeavg 53.8¢ | $10.75 | $10.6 | -$0.15 | 23% 147-489 (636) |
Invested
$4,605.84
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$50.06
Record
63%
1075-638 (1713)
Invested
$516.13
Value
$555.17
PnL
+$39.04
Record
—
4-2 (6)
Invested
$177.56
Value
$175.91
PnL
-$1.64
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
Invested
$109
Value
$106.98
PnL
-$2.02
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
forsenxd<$100Invested
$40.53
Value
$40.53
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
353-369 (722)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$27.9
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
29-30 (59)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$0.15
Record
23%
147-489 (636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.