Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors PlayTime (100%). 12 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (55%) · Xipto Esports at 0.1¢ · $84K held · ends Nov 7

Xipto Esports<1¢PlayTime>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 55%

Total Value

$83.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

12 of 22 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports0%

PlayTime100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime10 traders

Total Value$68.5K

Total Shares80,910

Combined PnL+$32.0K

Xipto Esports12 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares88,724

Combined PnL$-36.9K

PlayTime — 45%Xipto Esports — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3D	PlayTimeavg 39.3¢	$12.2K	$31.0K	+$18.8K	41% 182-264 (446)
CA calculate10	PlayTimeavg 41.7¢	$14.4K	$14.4K	+$7.1K	54% 1329-1146 (2475)
Skritopoolniy	PlayTimeavg 36.9¢	$6.2K	$9.4K	+$3.3K	47% 637-731 (1368)
RA RandomVibecoder	PlayTimeavg 43.3¢	$4.8K	$6.2K	+$1.5K	48% 855-909 (1764)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 58.7¢	$7.2K	$5.3K	$-1.9K	55% 787-646 (1433)
GO GooGooGaga1	PlayTimeavg 98.5¢	$5.8K	$5.0K	-$828.9	77% 68-20 (88)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 57.3¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$266.77	48% 5548-6063 (11611)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 63.1¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$663.83	68% 622-298 (920)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	PlayTimeavg 51.3¢	$11.3K	$1.1K	+$542.2	62% 622-382 (1004)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 56.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$109.61	48% 292-320 (612)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 33¢	$659.99	$999.99	+$339.99	53% 206-183 (389)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 56.3¢	$891.57	$859.94	-$31.63	53% 667-598 (1265)
38 38791873984189CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 55.8¢	$704.6	$708.51	+$32.26	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LR lryyyCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 59.2¢	$660.6	$641.09	-$19.5	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	PlayTimeavg 47¢	$510.53	$595.92	+$85.38	50% 564-572 (1136)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 57.5¢	$595.27	$450	-$145.27	54% 303-255 (558)
maytopmayCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 61.2¢	$603.49	$428.68	-$174.81	61% 311-201 (512)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	PlayTimeavg 50.4¢	$7.2K	$359.96	+$1.4K	68% 117-55 (172)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	PlayTimeavg 38¢	$100	$256.58	+$156.58	59% 33226-23391 (56617)
PA pauleta23<$100	PlayTimeavg 51¢	$52.7	$58.68	+$5.98	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 54.3¢	$32.6K	$30.02	$-32.6K	58% 955-684 (1639)
YA yadensCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 60.6¢	$2.0K	$1.65	$-2.0K	71% 189-76 (265)

Medo3D

PlayTime

Invested

$12,204.46

Value

$31.0K

PnL

+$18.8K

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

calculate10

PlayTime

Invested

$14,431.61

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

54%

1329-1146 (2475)

Skritopoolniy

PlayTime

Invested

$6,159.21

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

47%

637-731 (1368)

RandomVibecoder

PlayTime

Invested

$4,755.07

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Sisyphus-CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$7,212.75

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

787-646 (1433)

GooGooGaga1

PlayTime

Invested

$5,827.08

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$828.9

Record

77%

68-20 (88)

SlickRick123CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,134.58

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$266.77

Record

48%

5548-6063 (11611)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,140.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$663.83

Record

68%

622-298 (920)

BackTestEoCaraio

PlayTime

Invested

$11,344.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$542.2

Record

62%

622-382 (1004)

panpidaras1CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,176.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$109.61

Record

48%

292-320 (612)

Crazyboy77CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$659.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

+$339.99

Record

53%

206-183 (389)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$891.57

Value

$859.94

PnL

-$31.63

Record

53%

667-598 (1265)

38791873984189CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$704.6

Value

$708.51

PnL

+$32.26

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

lryyyCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$660.6

Value

$641.09

PnL

-$19.5

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

PlayTime

Invested

$510.53

Value

$595.92

PnL

+$85.38

Record

50%

564-572 (1136)

r2d2v2CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$595.27

Value

$450

PnL

-$145.27

Record

54%

303-255 (558)

maytopmayCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$603.49

Value

$428.68

PnL

-$174.81

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

UNIVERSEMVP

PlayTime

Invested

$7,186.19

Value

$359.96

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

68%

117-55 (172)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

PlayTime

Invested

$100

Value

$256.58

PnL

+$156.58

Record

59%

33226-23391 (56617)

pauleta23<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$52.7

Value

$58.68

PnL

+$5.98

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$32,600

Value

$30.02

PnL

$-32.6K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

yadensCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.65

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

71%

189-76 (265)

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

12 of 22 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.