Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (75%) · PlayTime at 83¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 7

Xipto Esports18¢PlayTime82¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 82.5¢

+61% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports18%

PlayTime83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports2 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,632

Combined PnL+$445.99

PlayTime6 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares11,267

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Xipto Esports — 25%PlayTime — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 51.3¢	$5.4K	$5.9K	+$449.21	58% 955-684 (1639)
AM ameisgoat11	PlayTimeavg 55.7¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$186.02	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 42.8¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$221.89	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 43.8¢	$715.78	$1.3K	+$606.96
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 42.8¢	$1.5K	$662.15	-$828.85
alpheclabs2	PlayTimeavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$774.51	47% 1363-1539 (2902)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PlayTimeavg 51.8¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$235.83	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
CA calculate10	PlayTimeavg 44.3¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$588.44	54% 1329-1146 (2475)
38 38791873984189	PlayTimeavg 49.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$141.15	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LR lryyy<$100	PlayTimeavg 48.7¢	$59.84	$86.4	+$26.56	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 35.4¢	$9.2	$5.98	-$3.23	47% 7500-8312 (15812)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,437.21

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$449.21

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

ameisgoat11

PlayTime

Invested

$3,952.41

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$186.02

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,206.78

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$221.89

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

Both legs:

PlayTime$715.7843.8¢+$606.96

Xipto Esports$1,49142.8¢-$828.85

alpheclabs2

PlayTime

Invested

$1,092.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$774.51

Record

47%

1363-1539 (2902)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PlayTime

Invested

$1,263.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$235.83

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

calculate10

PlayTime

Invested

$1,023.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$588.44

Record

54%

1329-1146 (2475)

38791873984189

PlayTime

Invested

$1,123.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$141.15

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

lryyy<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$59.84

Value

$86.4

PnL

+$26.56

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$9.2

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$3.23

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.