Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs potn9ki - Game 2 Winner

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold potn9ki (67%) · potn9ki at 75¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports25¢potn9ki75¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

potn9ki

Consensus Traders

potn9ki 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$662.59

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 75¢

+64% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutralpotn9ki at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

potn9ki

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports25%

potn9ki75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

potn9ki6 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares15,736

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Xipto Esports3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares7,055

Combined PnL$-3.2K

potn9ki — 67%Xipto Esports — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	potn9kiavg 45.3¢	$4.4K	$5.1K	+$658.5	48% 473-515 (988)
WH whosay	potn9kiavg 33.6¢	$1.0K	$2.5K	+$1.5K	— 10-6 (16)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 67.5¢	$4.5K	$1.3K	$-3.2K	45% 403-486 (889)
QW qwerqr1251251	potn9kiavg 70.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$118.72	9% 14-134 (148)
Medo3D	potn9kiavg 49.1¢	$527.67	$746.76	+$219.08	3% 6-200 (206)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60.9¢	$2.7K	$571.11	-$402.72	16% 14-71 (85)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 60.9¢	$919.67	$422.72	-$529.02
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 30.7¢	$63.34	$148.38	+$126.3
LR lryyy	potn9kiavg 46.9¢	$164.73	$194.59	+$29.86	50% 128-129 (257)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 64.9¢	$180.89	$174.26	-$6.63	34% 163-316 (479)
PA pauleta23	potn9kiavg 64.9¢	$104.58	$105.48	+$0.91	20% 100-408 (508)
TE testBruno2CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 57.6¢	$617.75	$52.89	+$33.61	13% 4-28 (32)

RandomVibecoder

potn9ki

Invested

$4,444.74

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$658.5

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

whosay

potn9ki

Invested

$1,029.29

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

—

10-6 (16)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$4,496.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

qwerqr1251251

potn9ki

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$118.72

Record

14-134 (148)

Medo3D

potn9ki

Invested

$527.67

Value

$746.76

PnL

+$219.08

Record

6-200 (206)

calculate10ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,678.82

Value

$571.11

PnL

-$402.72

Record

16%

14-71 (85)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$919.6760.9¢-$529.02

potn9ki$63.3430.7¢+$126.3

lryyy

potn9ki

Invested

$164.73

Value

$194.59

PnL

+$29.86

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$180.89

Value

$174.26

PnL

-$6.63

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

pauleta23

potn9ki

Invested

$104.58

Value

$105.48

PnL

+$0.91

Record

20%

100-408 (508)

testBruno2CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$617.75

Value

$52.89

PnL

+$33.61

Record

13%

4-28 (32)

Research grade

Neutralpotn9ki at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

potn9ki

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that potn9ki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.