Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs potn9ki - Game 1 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (60%) · Xipto Esports at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
Xipto Esports
5
Xipto Esports 60%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
$181.67
83.6¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralXipto Esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Xipto Esportsavg 80¢ | $5.1K | $6.4K | +$1.3K | 45% 403-486 (889) |
 handandfacetatto | Xipto Esportsavg 98.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$2.6 | 100% 28-0 (28) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Xipto Esportsavg 82¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$222.07 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
CA calculate10ARB<$100 | potn9kiavg 16.8¢ | $354.82 | $113.67 | -$79.14 | 17% 14-70 (84) |
| └ potn9ki leg | potn9kiavg 16.8¢ | $179.33 | $90.81 | -$88.52 | |
| └ Xipto Esports leg | Xipto Esportsavg 78¢ | $19.49 | $22.86 | +$9.37 | |
RA RandomVibecoderCTR<$100 | potn9kiavg 22¢ | $39.47 | $39.47 | +$0 | 48% 473-515 (988) |
 Medo3DCTR | potn9kiavg 19.4¢ | $1.3K | $3.38 | $-1.3K | 3% 6-200 (206) |
Invested
$5,100
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
45%
403-486 (889)
handandfacetattoInvested
$1,621.67
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$2.6
Record
100%
28-0 (28)
Invested
$1,014.61
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$222.07
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$354.82
Value
$113.67
PnL
-$79.14
Record
17%
14-70 (84)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.47
Value
$39.47
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
473-515 (988)
Medo3DCTRInvested
$1,313.57
Value
$3.38
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
3%
6-200 (206)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.