Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs potn9ki (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (80%) · Xipto Esports at 63¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports63¢potn9ki37¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 63¢

-26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports63%

potn9ki37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports8 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares13,518

Combined PnL$-3.6K

potn9ki2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,696

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Xipto Esports — 80%potn9ki — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 84.9¢	$9.8K	$6.5K	$-3.3K	57% 503-385 (888)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	potn9kiavg 14.9¢	$680.3	$1.9K	+$1.2K	48% 473-515 (988)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 86.2¢	$889.99	$981.05	+$124.68	23% 142-486 (628)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 12.8¢	$154.5	$524.6	+$370.1
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 86.2¢	$696.69	$456.46	-$245.42
Medo3DCTR	potn9kiavg 20.1¢	$316.84	$527.34	+$210.5	3% 6-200 (206)
CA calculate10	Xipto Esportsavg 84.8¢	$1.2K	$418.42	-$43.37	16% 14-71 (85)
JU JuiceFarm	Xipto Esportsavg 84¢	$269.06	$240.23	-$28.83	— 4-1 (5)
maytopmay	Xipto Esportsavg 87.4¢	$352.58	$227.84	-$124.74	7% 15-187 (202)
PO PourpelNourpel	Xipto Esportsavg 82¢	$305.29	$210.36	-$94.94	53% 17-15 (32)
TE testBruno2	Xipto Esportsavg 62.2¢	$265.72	$88.17	+$29.47	13% 4-28 (32)
LR lryyy<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 65.8¢	$36.11	$41.19	+$5.08	50% 128-129 (257)
CI cigarettes<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 88¢	$44	$37.5	-$6.5	52% 5313-4817 (10130)

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$9,837.21

Value

$6.5K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

57%

503-385 (888)

RandomVibecoderCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$680.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

473-515 (988)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$889.99

Value

$981.05

PnL

+$124.68

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

Both legs:

potn9ki$154.512.8¢+$370.1

Xipto Esports$696.6986.2¢-$245.42

Medo3DCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$316.84

Value

$527.34

PnL

+$210.5

Record

6-200 (206)

calculate10

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,162.89

Value

$418.42

PnL

-$43.37

Record

16%

14-71 (85)

JuiceFarm

Xipto Esports

Invested

$269.06

Value

$240.23

PnL

-$28.83

Record

—

4-1 (5)

maytopmay

Xipto Esports

Invested

$352.58

Value

$227.84

PnL

-$124.74

Record

15-187 (202)

PourpelNourpel

Xipto Esports

Invested

$305.29

Value

$210.36

PnL

-$94.94

Record

53%

17-15 (32)

testBruno2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$265.72

Value

$88.17

PnL

+$29.47

Record

13%

4-28 (32)

lryyy<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$36.11

Value

$41.19

PnL

+$5.08

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

cigarettes<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$44

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.