Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs potn9ki (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group C
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold potn9ki (50%) · potn9ki at 59¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
potn9ki
2
potn9ki 50%
3 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$173.22
Research grade
Neutralpotn9ki at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on potn9ki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PN pnhctARB<$100 | Xipto Esportsavg 45.9¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$73.17 | 53% 531-465 (996) |
| └ Xipto Esports leg | Xipto Esportsavg 45.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$46.21 | |
| └ potn9ki leg | potn9kiavg 51.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$26.96 | |
CO ColdBlooded | potn9kiavg 55.6¢ | $1.7K | $779.34 | -$152.82 | 72% 144-57 (201) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Xipto Esportsavg 45.8¢ | $69.88 | $84.16 | -$1.92 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
| └ Xipto Esports leg | Xipto Esportsavg 45.8¢ | $61.78 | $60.72 | -$1.07 | |
| └ potn9ki leg | potn9kiavg 19¢ | $8.1 | $23.44 | -$0.85 | |
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100 | potn9kiavg 54.1¢ | $374.64 | $72.52 | -$4 | 53% 1106-972 (2078) |
| └ potn9ki leg | potn9kiavg 54.1¢ | $54.29 | $48.67 | -$5.63 | |
| └ Xipto Esports leg | Xipto Esportsavg 48¢ | $22.22 | $23.86 | +$1.63 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Xipto Esportsavg 63.2¢ | $70.83 | $50.42 | -$20.41 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
Invested
$2,450.94
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$73.17
Record
53%
531-465 (996)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,675.99
Value
$779.34
PnL
-$152.82
Record
72%
144-57 (201)
Invested
$69.88
Value
$84.16
PnL
-$1.92
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Both legs:
Invested
$374.64
Value
$72.52
PnL
-$4
Record
53%
1106-972 (2078)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$70.83
Value
$50.42
PnL
-$20.41
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.