Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (57%) · Xipto Esports at 63¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 13

Xipto Esports63¢Nemiga Gaming37¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

-$88.37

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 62.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports63%

Nemiga Gaming38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports8 traders

Total Value$24.9K

Total Shares39,817

Combined PnL+$650.44

Nemiga Gaming6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares18,532

Combined PnL-$738.81

Xipto Esports — 57%Nemiga Gaming — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpXipto Esports 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNemiga Gaming 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Xipto Esports 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 59.1¢	$18.4K	$19.5K	+$1.0K	46% 454-523 (977)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Xipto Esportsavg 65.5¢	$6.4K	$4.4K	-$424.72	31% 42-92 (134)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 40.2¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$165.74	8% 33-374 (407)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 42.7¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$289.39	48% 517-567 (1084)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 40.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$141.69	43% 53-71 (124)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$18	56% 3917-3078 (6995)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 63¢	$880.59	$873.52	-$7.07
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 35.5¢	$435.54	$460.6	+$25.07
NO nomoredream	Xipto Esportsavg 61.1¢	$964.77	$987.04	+$22.27	35% 44-81 (125)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$683.75	+$16.25	54% 503-420 (923)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$387.5	$492.13	+$137.13
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$191.63	-$120.88
VV VVVSSPCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 44.2¢	$763.32	$648	-$115.32	28% 24-63 (87)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 39¢	$347.67	$334.69	-$12.99	41% 294-417 (711)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 47¢	$67.68	$54	-$13.68	41% 32-47 (79)
poshposh<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60¢	$32.96	$34.49	+$1.52	48% 591-648 (1239)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Xipto Esportsavg 64.4¢	$656.66	$24.87	+$7.47	15% 36-210 (246)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60¢	$12.22	$12.02	-$0.2	15% 34-198 (232)
SE sentrio<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 66.4¢	$12.16	$10.81	-$1.36	41% 590-850 (1440)
LR lryyy<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.4	+$0.05	44% 432-543 (975)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$18,405.83

Value

$19.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

46%

454-523 (977)

UNIVERSEMVP

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6,372.1

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$424.72

Record

31%

42-92 (134)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,436.86

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$165.74

Record

33-374 (407)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,367.95

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$289.39

Record

48%

517-567 (1084)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,704.68

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$141.69

Record

43%

53-71 (124)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,316.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$18

Record

56%

3917-3078 (6995)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$880.5963¢-$7.07

Nemiga Gaming$435.5435.5¢+$25.07

nomoredream

Xipto Esports

Invested

$964.77

Value

$987.04

PnL

+$22.27

Record

35%

44-81 (125)

NotJumpARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,025

Value

$683.75

PnL

+$16.25

Record

54%

503-420 (923)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$387.550¢+$137.13

Nemiga Gaming$262.550¢-$120.88

VVVSSPCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$763.32

Value

$648

PnL

-$115.32

Record

28%

24-63 (87)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$347.67

Value

$334.69

PnL

-$12.99

Record

41%

294-417 (711)

ccllarCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$67.68

Value

$54

PnL

-$13.68

Record

41%

32-47 (79)

poshposh<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$32.96

Value

$34.49

PnL

+$1.52

Record

48%

591-648 (1239)

TommyLeePeeca

Xipto Esports

Invested

$656.66

Value

$24.87

PnL

+$7.47

Record

15%

36-210 (246)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$12.22

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$0.2

Record

15%

34-198 (232)

sentrio<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$12.16

Value

$10.81

PnL

-$1.36

Record

41%

590-850 (1440)

lryyy<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

44%

432-543 (975)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpXipto Esports 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNemiga Gaming 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Xipto Esports 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.