Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (67%) · Xipto Esports at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Xipto Esports82¢Nemiga Gaming18¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$120.87

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 82¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports82%

Nemiga Gaming18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports6 traders

Total Value$622.89

Total Shares840

Combined PnL+$0.54

Nemiga Gaming3 traders

Total Value$235.41

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL-$121.41

Xipto Esports — 67%Nemiga Gaming — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpXipto Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrXipto Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$525	$488.25	-$36.75	55% 499-416 (915)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$262.5	$346.5	+$84
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$141.75	-$120.75
JU JuiceFarm	Xipto Esportsavg 70¢	$363.64	$379.22	+$15.58	61% 28-18 (46)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 29.1¢	$300.01	$185.73	-$114.28	41% 293-414 (707)
HY hydra1248	Xipto Esportsavg 76¢	$114.17	$99.15	-$15.02	78% 126-36 (162)
GA Gaditima<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 74¢	$70.08	$78.06	+$7.98	46% 170-197 (367)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 67.5¢	$69.46	$70.07	+$0.6	14% 35-210 (245)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 67.5¢	$40.12	$48.43	+$8.31
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 25.1¢	$29.34	$21.63	-$7.71
TH thatsabing0<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 76¢	$58.56	$50.85	-$7.71	66% 142-74 (216)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 27.9¢	$50.54	$43.39	-$7.15	56% 3915-3078 (6993)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 74.3¢	$12.35	$12.3	-$0.05	38% 501-817 (1318)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 18.5¢	$6.28	$6.29	+$0.02	42% 279-387 (666)
PA Pan9X<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.3	-$0.25	49% 1088-1142 (2230)

NotJumpARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$525

Value

$488.25

PnL

-$36.75

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$262.550¢+$84

Nemiga Gaming$262.550¢-$120.75

JuiceFarm

Xipto Esports

Invested

$363.64

Value

$379.22

PnL

+$15.58

Record

61%

28-18 (46)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$300.01

Value

$185.73

PnL

-$114.28

Record

41%

293-414 (707)

hydra1248

Xipto Esports

Invested

$114.17

Value

$99.15

PnL

-$15.02

Record

78%

126-36 (162)

Gaditima<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$70.08

Value

$78.06

PnL

+$7.98

Record

46%

170-197 (367)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$69.46

Value

$70.07

PnL

+$0.6

Record

14%

35-210 (245)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$40.1267.5¢+$8.31

Nemiga Gaming$29.3425.1¢-$7.71

thatsabing0<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$58.56

Value

$50.85

PnL

-$7.71

Record

66%

142-74 (216)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$50.54

Value

$43.39

PnL

-$7.15

Record

56%

3915-3078 (6993)

ameisgoat11<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$12.35

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

501-817 (1318)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

279-387 (666)

Pan9X<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

1088-1142 (2230)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpXipto Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrXipto Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.