Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (60%) · Xipto Esports at 59¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 11

Xipto Esports59¢LEGION41¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$723.4

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 59¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports59%

LEGION41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports6 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares25,989

Combined PnL+$503.57

LEGION4 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares25,789

Combined PnL+$219.83

Xipto Esports — 60%LEGION — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 56.1¢	$8.7K	$8.7K	-$22.19	46% 426-495 (921)
GE GeorgeReCTR	LEGIONavg 59.9¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$206.2	53% 698-629 (1327)
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 44.9¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$629.92	57% 514-393 (907)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	LEGIONavg 40.7¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$152.35	48% 491-535 (1026)
Medo3DCTR	LEGIONavg 41¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$150.65	6% 14-216 (230)
Tolkonevminus2	Xipto Esportsavg 58.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$66.22	34% 29-57 (86)
MA madar78	Xipto Esportsavg 39¢	$759.11	$750.11	-$9.01	35% 19-35 (54)
QW qwerqr1251251	Xipto Esportsavg 65.8¢	$300	$271.14	-$28.86	15% 25-143 (168)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 57.1¢	$169.27	$175.39	+$6.12	53% 1788-1588 (3376)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 57.1¢	$120.5	$122.46	+$1.97
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 38.7¢	$48.77	$52.92	+$4.16
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$161.77	$161.78	+$0.01	8% 17-185 (202)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$81	$85.86	+$4.86
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 50¢	$80.77	$75.92	-$4.85
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 32¢	$50.88	$62.81	+$11.92	46% 109-130 (239)
PA pauleta23<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60¢	$10	$9.92	-$0.08	28% 179-465 (644)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$8,700

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$22.19

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

GeorgeReCTR

LEGION

Invested

$7,777

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$206.2

Record

53%

698-629 (1327)

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,535.84

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$629.92

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

RandomVibecoderCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,695.62

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$152.35

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

Medo3DCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,470.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$150.65

Record

14-216 (230)

Tolkonevminus2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,421.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$66.22

Record

34%

29-57 (86)

madar78

Xipto Esports

Invested

$759.11

Value

$750.11

PnL

-$9.01

Record

35%

19-35 (54)

qwerqr1251251

Xipto Esports

Invested

$300

Value

$271.14

PnL

-$28.86

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$169.27

Value

$175.39

PnL

+$6.12

Record

53%

1788-1588 (3376)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$120.557.1¢+$1.97

LEGION$48.7738.7¢+$4.16

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$161.77

Value

$161.78

PnL

+$0.01

Record

17-185 (202)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$8150¢+$4.86

LEGION$80.7750¢-$4.85

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$50.88

Value

$62.81

PnL

+$11.92

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

pauleta23<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$10

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

28%

179-465 (644)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.