Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors LEGION (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (56%) · Xipto Esports at 0.1¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 11

Xipto Esports<1¢LEGION>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 56%

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$-10.5K

Smart Money Entry

39.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports0%

LEGION100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION4 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares14,234

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Xipto Esports5 traders

Total Value$166.29

Total Shares32,069

Combined PnL$-12.8K

LEGION — 44%Xipto Esports — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLEGION 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLEGION 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedXipto Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	LEGIONavg 62.8¢	$5.0K	$7.0K	+$2.1K	53% 1788-1588 (3376)
handandfacetatto	LEGIONavg 99.9¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$139.84	100% 57-0 (57)
Hawk.live	LEGIONavg 79.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$311.33	56% 661-512 (1173)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	LEGIONavg 56¢	$620.28	$664.72	+$44.44	8% 17-185 (202)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 45.9¢	$2.0K	$133.32	$-1.9K	53% 698-629 (1327)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 47¢	$305.27	$19.49	-$285.78	51% 30-29 (59)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 36.3¢	$6.8K	$9.38	$-6.8K	46% 426-495 (921)
MA madar78CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 40.5¢	$3.2K	$3.18	$-2.9K	35% 19-35 (54)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 46.4¢	$867	$0.93	-$866.07	57% 514-393 (907)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

LEGION

Invested

$4,983.64

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

53%

1788-1588 (3376)

handandfacetatto

LEGION

Invested

$4,836.36

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$139.84

Record

100%

57-0 (57)

Hawk.live

LEGION

Invested

$1,242.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$311.33

Record

56%

661-512 (1173)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

LEGION

Invested

$620.28

Value

$664.72

PnL

+$44.44

Record

17-185 (202)

GeorgeReCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,041.34

Value

$133.32

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

53%

698-629 (1327)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$305.27

Value

$19.49

PnL

-$285.78

Record

51%

30-29 (59)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6,800

Value

$9.38

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

madar78CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,170.28

Value

$3.18

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

35%

19-35 (54)

Sisyphus-CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$867

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$866.07

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLEGION 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLEGION 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedXipto Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.