Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (60%) · LEGION at 81¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
LEGION
5
LEGION 60%
$7.5K
-$478.66
78.5¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLEGION at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | LEGIONavg 81¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$62.19 | 53% 1788-1588 (3376) |
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR | Xipto Esportsavg 24.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.0K | -$539.63 | 46% 426-495 (921) |
JU JuiceFarm | LEGIONavg 65¢ | $649.99 | $809.98 | +$160 | — 12-7 (19) |
GT gt7238CTR<$100 | Xipto Esportsavg 35¢ | $81.02 | $43.98 | -$37.04 | 3% 16-448 (464) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | LEGIONavg 62¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
Invested
$4,729.33
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$62.19
Record
53%
1788-1588 (3376)
Invested
$2,511.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$539.63
Record
46%
426-495 (921)
Invested
$649.99
Value
$809.98
PnL
+$160
Record
—
12-7 (19)
Invested
$81.02
Value
$43.98
PnL
-$37.04
Record
3%
16-448 (464)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.