Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs HULIGANI (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (43%) · Xipto Esports at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Xipto Esports50¢HULIGANI50¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$149.88

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 50¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports50%

HULIGANI50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports3 traders

Total Value$871.23

Total Shares1,291

Combined PnL+$222.71

HULIGANI4 traders

Total Value$193.26

Total Shares554

Combined PnL-$72.84

Xipto Esports — 43%HULIGANI — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 51.3¢	$763.5	$884.3	+$120.8	53% 14833-13045 (27878)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 36.2¢	$347.43	$475.05	+$127.62
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 51.3¢	$416.07	$409.25	-$6.82
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 59.4¢	$519.74	$510.9	-$8.84	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 59.4¢	$302.34	$259.72	-$42.62
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 42.4¢	$217.4	$251.18	+$33.78
LI liriks	Xipto Esportsavg 43.2¢	$327.01	$510.74	+$183.73	67% 24-12 (36)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 60.2¢	$412.74	$405.84	-$6.9	54% 1348-1159 (2507)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 42.3¢	$180.63	$209.29	+$28.66
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 60.2¢	$232.11	$196.55	-$35.56
LO lonmi2511	Xipto Esportsavg 66.4¢	$273.56	$278.1	+$4.54	53% 1651-1490 (3141)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 55¢	$192.13	$228.54	+$36.41	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 32.1¢	$84.42	$128.72	+$44.31
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 55¢	$107.71	$99.82	-$7.9
DA darkumbreon88	HULIGANIavg 58¢	$186.08	$104.27	-$81.81	65% 2215-1212 (3427)
GT gt7238<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 39.3¢	$47.95	$82.39	+$34.45	45% 702-874 (1576)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	HULIGANIavg 57.2¢	$55.93	$55.08	-$0.85	47% 255-289 (544)
LR lryyy<$100	HULIGANIavg 33.5¢	$14.74	$21.56	+$6.82	48% 40305-43263 (83568)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	HULIGANIavg 32¢	$9.35	$12.35	+$3	52% 6198-5720 (11918)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$763.5

Value

$884.3

PnL

+$120.8

Record

53%

14833-13045 (27878)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$347.4336.2¢+$127.62

Xipto Esports$416.0751.3¢-$6.82

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$519.74

Value

$510.9

PnL

-$8.84

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$302.3459.4¢-$42.62

HULIGANI$217.442.4¢+$33.78

liriks

Xipto Esports

Invested

$327.01

Value

$510.74

PnL

+$183.73

Record

67%

24-12 (36)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$412.74

Value

$405.84

PnL

-$6.9

Record

54%

1348-1159 (2507)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$180.6342.3¢+$28.66

Xipto Esports$232.1160.2¢-$35.56

lonmi2511

Xipto Esports

Invested

$273.56

Value

$278.1

PnL

+$4.54

Record

53%

1651-1490 (3141)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$192.13

Value

$228.54

PnL

+$36.41

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$84.4232.1¢+$44.31

Xipto Esports$107.7155¢-$7.9

darkumbreon88

HULIGANI

Invested

$186.08

Value

$104.27

PnL

-$81.81

Record

65%

2215-1212 (3427)

gt7238<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$47.95

Value

$82.39

PnL

+$34.45

Record

45%

702-874 (1576)

glennyorkshire<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$55.93

Value

$55.08

PnL

-$0.85

Record

47%

255-289 (544)

lryyy<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$14.74

Value

$21.56

PnL

+$6.82

Record

48%

40305-43263 (83568)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$9.35

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.