Dota 2: World Squad vs CIS Squad (BO1) - PARI Universe Showmatch

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold CIS Squad (70%) · CIS Squad at 100¢ · $29K held · ends Oct 31

World Squad<1¢CIS Squad>99¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CIS Squad

Consensus Traders

CIS Squad 70%

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCIS Squad at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CIS Squad

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

World Squad0%

CIS Squad100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CIS Squad7 traders

Total Value$29.1K

Total Shares29,132

Combined PnL+$4.3K

World Squad3 traders

Total Value$3.11

Total Shares6,225

Combined PnL$-1.6K

CIS Squad — 70%World Squad — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on CIS Squad. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCIS Squad 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrCIS Squad 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000CIS Squad 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI pipipi150	CIS Squadavg 96.5¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$85.35	65% 1733-930 (2663)
cat3xcat3x	CIS Squadavg 68.5¢	$4.4K	$6.5K	+$2.0K	56% 334-264 (598)
QW qwerqr1251251	CIS Squadavg 81¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$918.36	69% 301-133 (434)
Up0nly	CIS Squadavg 80.2¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$502.66	68% 978-469 (1447)
LO looppau	CIS Squadavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 10942-66 (11008)
iceblue-	CIS Squadavg 63.5¢	$762	$1.2K	+$436.8	43% 814-1082 (1896)
web3Boss	CIS Squadavg 69¢	$690	$999.5	+$309.5	75% 591-202 (793)
NO notailnotailCTR	World Squadavg 31¢	$999.74	$1.61	-$998.13	47% 332-377 (709)
TY tyutgbhnmCTR	World Squadavg 27.7¢	$691.72	$1.25	-$690.47	52% 47-43 (90)
PO pol2131CTR<$100	World Squadavg 18.6¢	$93.08	$0.25	+$41.92	45% 406-495 (901)

pipipi150

CIS Squad

Invested

$10,021.17

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$85.35

Record

65%

1733-930 (2663)

cat3xcat3x

CIS Squad

Invested

$4,426.73

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

56%

334-264 (598)

qwerqr1251251

CIS Squad

Invested

$5,233.34

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$918.36

Record

69%

301-133 (434)

Up0nly

CIS Squad

Invested

$2,036.07

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$502.66

Record

68%

978-469 (1447)

looppau

CIS Squad

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

10942-66 (11008)

iceblue-

CIS Squad

Invested

$762

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$436.8

Record

43%

814-1082 (1896)

web3Boss

CIS Squad

Invested

$690

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$309.5

Record

75%

591-202 (793)

notailnotailCTR

World Squad

Invested

$999.74

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$998.13

Record

47%

332-377 (709)

tyutgbhnmCTR

World Squad

Invested

$691.72

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$690.47

Record

52%

47-43 (90)

pol2131CTR<$100

World Squad

Invested

$93.08

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$41.92

Record

45%

406-495 (901)

Research grade

NeutralCIS Squad at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

CIS Squad

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on CIS Squad. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCIS Squad 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrCIS Squad 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000CIS Squad 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CIS Squad wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.