Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Games Total: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$2.3K
$446.47
73.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Underavg 26¢ | $646.55 | $1.0K | +$373.01 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
VO VolodyabanditCTR | Overavg 73.4¢ | $707 | $708.65 | +$1.65 | 76% 275-86 (361) |
AM ameisgoat11 | Underavg 79.4¢ | $208.43 | $245.61 | +$37.19 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 23¢ | $115 | $210 | +$17.5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
YI yishiwuchengCTR<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $47.73 | $58.36 | +$11.78 | 51% 1833-1762 (3595) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 41.6¢ | $14.82 | $22.19 | +$7.37 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $20.4 | $18.37 | -$2.03 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$646.55
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$373.01
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$707
Value
$708.65
PnL
+$1.65
Record
76%
275-86 (361)
Invested
$208.43
Value
$245.61
PnL
+$37.19
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
Invested
$115
Value
$210
PnL
+$17.5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$47.73
Value
$58.36
PnL
+$11.78
Record
51%
1833-1762 (3595)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$22.19
PnL
+$7.37
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
poshposh<$100Invested
$20.4
Value
$18.37
PnL
-$2.03
Record
58%
10670-7658 (18328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.