Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner

35 of 74 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (47%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $481K held · ends Nov 1

Team Yandex<1¢Team Spirit>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 47%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$481.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

35 of 74 top traders (47%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed39 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex0%

Team Spirit100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit35 traders

Total Value$344.2K

Total Shares443,784

Combined PnL+$24.6K

Team Yandex39 traders

Total Value$117.0K

Total Shares337,842

Combined PnL$-30.4K

Team Spirit — 47%Team Yandex — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyWin	Team Spiritavg 99.9¢	$85.2K	$85.2K	+$66.83	85% 777-136 (913)
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 61.8¢	$45.3K	$45.7K	+$393.26	53% 532-465 (997)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 69.5¢	$20.5K	$25.4K	+$4.9K	69% 502-221 (723)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Spiritavg 43.7¢	$15.5K	$17.7K	+$19.9K	54% 1091-934 (2025)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 70.2¢	$12.2K	$15.0K	+$2.8K	71% 166-69 (235)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 48.7¢	$16.8K	$14.6K	$-2.1K	58% 907-653 (1560)
relativesignificance	Team Spiritavg 41.1¢	$14.9K	$14.4K	-$48.35	56% 115-90 (205)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 62.1¢	$14.8K	$13.1K	-$306.79	64% 313-177 (490)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Spiritavg 45.2¢	$14.0K	$12.7K	$-1.3K	57% 726-555 (1281)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Team Yandexavg 57¢	$10.9K	$11.1K	+$284.12	54% 2484-2134 (4618)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 72.5¢	$10.3K	$10.7K	+$1.7K	55% 360-294 (654)
dodsterbotCTR	Team Yandexavg 53¢	$12.2K	$10.4K	$-1.7K	46% 635-744 (1379)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR	Team Yandexavg 55.5¢	$9.7K	$10.3K	+$612.5	43% 342-456 (798)
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Spiritavg 92.5¢	$13.0K	$10.3K	$-2.7K	78% 40-11 (51)
cat3xcat3x	Team Spiritavg 88.4¢	$24.6K	$10.2K	$-5.1K	56% 336-266 (602)
maytopmay	Team Spiritavg 47¢	$5.8K	$10.1K	+$4.3K	61% 286-184 (470)
CyberScore.liveCTR	Team Yandexavg 59¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$0	46% 408-480 (888)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Team Yandexavg 58.7¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$43.14	42% 86-117 (203)
TokennCTR	Team Yandexavg 54.7¢	$8.4K	$9.0K	+$629.5	48% 659-716 (1375)
TY tyutgbhnmCTR	Team Yandexavg 41.7¢	$5.3K	$7.5K	+$2.2K	53% 50-45 (95)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Spiritavg 75.9¢	$11.0K	$7.4K	-$361.64	61% 532-346 (878)
VP VPenguin	Team Spiritavg 47.5¢	$8.0K	$6.9K	$-1.1K	44% 809-1047 (1856)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Team Yandexavg 53¢	$5.7K	$6.4K	+$647.88	50% 67-66 (133)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR	Team Yandexavg 56.8¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$240.36	54% 50-43 (93)
KARTERORCTR	Team Yandexavg 8.8¢	$5.2K	$6.0K	+$851.12	42% 174-244 (418)

LuckyWin

Team Spirit

Invested

$85,155.02

Value

$85.2K

PnL

+$66.83

Record

85%

777-136 (913)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$45,261.86

Value

$45.7K

PnL

+$393.26

Record

53%

532-465 (997)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$20,520.21

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

69%

502-221 (723)

GeorgeRe

Team Spirit

Invested

$15,477

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$19.9K

Record

54%

1091-934 (2025)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$12,193.25

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

71%

166-69 (235)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$16,770.59

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

58%

907-653 (1560)

relativesignificance

Team Spirit

Invested

$14,919.4

Value

$14.4K

PnL

-$48.35

Record

56%

115-90 (205)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$14,780.27

Value

$13.1K

PnL

-$306.79

Record

64%

313-177 (490)

Sisyphus-

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,974

Value

$12.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

726-555 (1281)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$10,856.52

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$284.12

Record

54%

2484-2134 (4618)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$10,303.9

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

360-294 (654)

dodsterbotCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$12,154.59

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

46%

635-744 (1379)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,696.68

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$612.5

Record

43%

342-456 (798)

GooGooGaga1

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,025.85

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

78%

40-11 (51)

cat3xcat3x

Team Spirit

Invested

$24,639.9

Value

$10.2K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

56%

336-266 (602)

maytopmay

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,755.49

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

61%

286-184 (470)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

408-480 (888)

fantasy7788CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,731.03

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$43.14

Record

42%

86-117 (203)

TokennCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$8,388.6

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$629.5

Record

48%

659-716 (1375)

tyutgbhnmCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,268.24

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

50-45 (95)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,019.12

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$361.64

Record

61%

532-346 (878)

VPenguin

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,036.71

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

44%

809-1047 (1856)

luckycat888888CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,722.93

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$647.88

Record

50%

67-66 (133)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,114.6

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$240.36

Record

54%

50-43 (93)

KARTERORCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,188.26

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$851.12

Record

42%

174-244 (418)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

35 of 74 top traders (47%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed39 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.