Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Team Yandex, while the market favors Team Spirit (52%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (20%) · Team Yandex at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Team Yandex
5
Team Yandex 20%
$3.3K
$73.77
Research grade
NeutralTeam Yandex at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Team Spirit 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Team Yandexavg 47¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$68.76 | 52% 1575-1457 (3032) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Team Spiritavg 50¢ | $51.43 | $54.52 | +$3.6 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100 | Team Spiritavg 53¢ | $53.74 | $53.74 | +$0 | 47% 2571-2857 (5428) |
 forsenxd<$100 | Team Spiritavg 49.7¢ | $26.01 | $27.22 | +$1.21 | 53% 1074-939 (2013) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Spiritavg 52.2¢ | $13.05 | $13.25 | +$0.2 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
Invested
$3,081.09
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$68.76
Record
52%
1575-1457 (3032)
Invested
$51.43
Value
$54.52
PnL
+$3.6
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
Invested
$53.74
Value
$53.74
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2571-2857 (5428)
forsenxd<$100Invested
$26.01
Value
$27.22
PnL
+$1.21
Record
53%
1074-939 (2013)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$13.25
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.