Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Team Spirit, while the market favors Team Yandex (66%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (67%) · Team Spirit at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Team Spirit
3
Team Spirit 67%
$1.2K
$12.57
33.1¢ → 34¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Spirit at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Team Yandex 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPredictionCTR | Team Spiritavg 33¢ | $3.0K | $1.0K | +$15 | 53% 4588-4004 (8592) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Team Yandexavg 66¢ | $113.3 | $113.3 | -$0 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
 ColdWCTR<$100 | Team Spiritavg 35¢ | $56.7 | $53.46 | -$2.43 | 61% 2021-1298 (3319) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.