Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold GamerLegion, while the market favors Team Yandex (65%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (60%) · GamerLegion at 36¢ · $618 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
GamerLegion
5
GamerLegion 60%
$617.81
$32.36
33.7¢ → 35.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGamerLegion at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Team Yandex 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | GamerLegionavg 34.5¢ | $345 | $340 | +$10 | 47% 2487-2794 (5281) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | GamerLegionavg 32¢ | $160 | $170 | +$17.5 | 53% 5590-4952 (10542) |
AC acorp<$100 | Team Yandexavg 59¢ | $66.08 | $73.92 | +$6.16 | 49% 620-637 (1257) |
WE wewbo<$100 | Team Yandexavg 66¢ | $30.49 | $30.49 | -$1.15 | 51% 146-138 (284) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | GamerLegionavg 35.5¢ | $3.55 | $3.4 | -$0.15 | 47% 2324-2589 (4913) |
Invested
$345
Value
$340
PnL
+$10
Record
47%
2487-2794 (5281)
Invested
$160
Value
$170
PnL
+$17.5
Record
53%
5590-4952 (10542)
Invested
$66.08
Value
$73.92
PnL
+$6.16
Record
49%
620-637 (1257)
Invested
$30.49
Value
$30.49
PnL
-$1.15
Record
51%
146-138 (284)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
47%
2324-2589 (4913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.