Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold GamerLegion, while the market favors Team Yandex (87%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (40%) · GamerLegion at 14¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
GamerLegion
5
GamerLegion 40%
$1.8K
$74.27
13¢ → 13.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidGamerLegion at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Team Yandex 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CORGIICTR | GamerLegionavg 13¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$42.03 | 41% 393-565 (958) |
AS astapzippo | Team Yandexavg 83¢ | $514.59 | $539.39 | +$27.9 | 56% 2148-1702 (3850) |
 poshposh<$100 | Team Yandexavg 82.6¢ | $66.18 | $69.67 | +$3.9 | 59% 10125-7117 (17242) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | GamerLegionavg 12¢ | $12 | $13 | +$0.5 | 49% 7885-8203 (16088) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Yandexavg 87¢ | $10 | $8.65 | -$0.05 | 48% 2374-2612 (4986) |
CORGIICTRInvested
$1,092.69
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$42.03
Record
41%
393-565 (958)
Invested
$514.59
Value
$539.39
PnL
+$27.9
Record
56%
2148-1702 (3850)
poshposh<$100Invested
$66.18
Value
$69.67
PnL
+$3.9
Record
59%
10125-7117 (17242)
Invested
$12
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
7885-8203 (16088)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
2374-2612 (4986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.