Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner

24 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (57%) · Team Yandex at 100¢ · $153K held · ends Oct 28

Team Yandex>99¢Astra Invicta<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 57%

Total Value

$152.6K

Combined PnL

$-10.6K

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

24 of 42 top traders (57%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex100%

Astra Invicta0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Yandex24 traders

Total Value$116.9K

Total Shares149,261

Combined PnL$-11.7K

Astra Invicta18 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares197,915

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Team Yandex — 57%Astra Invicta — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YA yadens	Team Yandexavg 86.7¢	$19.7K	$22.3K	+$2.7K	70% 145-61 (206)
RO Rock.San	Team Yandexavg 99.9¢	$22.0K	$22.0K	+$11	89% 11909-1414 (13323)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Yandexavg 75.5¢	$20.0K	$12.9K	$-7.1K	58% 883-644 (1527)
PN pnhct	Team Yandexavg 84.7¢	$12.1K	$12.0K	-$44.51	54% 454-390 (844)
EX Excentrico	Team Yandexavg 91.5¢	$14.1K	$11.9K	+$126.06	64% 292-167 (459)
MO momijidanCTR	Astra Invictaavg 20.6¢	$3.4K	$8.6K	+$5.1K	52% 193-180 (373)
GX gxxyy	Team Yandexavg 81.1¢	$5.0K	$5.7K	+$644.08	69% 478-215 (693)
XB xboyssk	Team Yandexavg 83.8¢	$4.5K	$5.3K	+$776.91	64% 25-14 (39)
CyberScore.liveCTR	Astra Invictaavg 20.9¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$567.56	46% 398-465 (863)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Astra Invictaavg 26¢	$2.2K	$4.4K	+$2.2K	54% 1067-924 (1991)
ST StakesForFun	Team Yandexavg 89.4¢	$17.6K	$4.3K	+$940.95	63% 369-215 (584)
LI LinkE5	Team Yandexavg 76¢	$6.1K	$3.9K	$-2.2K	48% 694-765 (1459)
Medo3DCTR	Astra Invictaavg 23.2¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$121.89	39% 156-244 (400)
LudotryasskaCTR	Astra Invictaavg 24.7¢	$1.7K	$3.6K	+$1.9K	59% 47-32 (79)
RR rrooster	Team Yandexavg 77.8¢	$4.7K	$3.0K	$-1.8K	63% 1321-785 (2106)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Astra Invictaavg 24¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$186.04	48% 597-634 (1231)
forsenxd	Team Yandexavg 81¢	$4.3K	$2.6K	$-1.7K	54% 1041-904 (1945)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	Team Yandexavg 76.1¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	$-1.2K	56% 39-31 (70)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Yandexavg 95.4¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$40.39	60% 515-337 (852)
99 999999666544332578855667788	Team Yandexavg 78¢	$3.0K	$1.9K	$-1.2K	57% 628-467 (1095)
Up0nlyCTR	Astra Invictaavg 23.7¢	$815.28	$1.8K	+$954.26	68% 964-452 (1416)
cat3xcat3xCTR	Astra Invictaavg 22.2¢	$4.5K	$1.7K	$-2.8K	56% 320-251 (571)
A3 a37932699	Team Yandexavg 77¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$826.5	54% 391-327 (718)
BA Barbozaaa321CTR	Astra Invictaavg 22¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$30	51% 338-321 (659)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Astra Invictaavg 23.5¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$199.56	48% 787-838 (1625)

yadens

Team Yandex

Invested

$19,695.75

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

70%

145-61 (206)

Rock.San

Team Yandex

Invested

$21,978

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$11

Record

89%

11909-1414 (13323)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Yandex

Invested

$20,000

Value

$12.9K

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

58%

883-644 (1527)

pnhct

Team Yandex

Invested

$12,068.37

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$44.51

Record

54%

454-390 (844)

Excentrico

Team Yandex

Invested

$14,109.98

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$126.06

Record

64%

292-167 (459)

momijidanCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$3,428.48

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

52%

193-180 (373)

gxxyy

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,048.34

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$644.08

Record

69%

478-215 (693)

xboyssk

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,498.57

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$776.91

Record

64%

25-14 (39)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,972.3

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$567.56

Record

46%

398-465 (863)

GeorgeReCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,197.02

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

54%

1067-924 (1991)

StakesForFun

Team Yandex

Invested

$17,600.03

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$940.95

Record

63%

369-215 (584)

LinkE5

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,070.12

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

48%

694-765 (1459)

Medo3DCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$3,939.16

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$121.89

Record

39%

156-244 (400)

LudotryasskaCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,735.77

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

59%

47-32 (79)

rrooster

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,749.29

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

63%

1321-785 (2106)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,952.42

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$186.04

Record

48%

597-634 (1231)

forsenxd

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,332.66

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

1041-904 (1945)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,440

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

39-31 (70)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,063.26

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40.39

Record

60%

515-337 (852)

999999666544332578855667788

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,042

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

57%

628-467 (1095)

Up0nlyCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$815.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$954.26

Record

68%

964-452 (1416)

cat3xcat3xCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,536.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

56%

320-251 (571)

a37932699

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,233

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$826.5

Record

54%

391-327 (718)

Barbozaaa321CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,319.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

338-321 (659)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,049.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$199.56

Record

48%

787-838 (1625)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

24 of 42 top traders (57%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.