Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Astra Invicta (+1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (67%) · Team Yandex at 69¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Team Yandex
6
Team Yandex 67%
$6.2K
$54.06
68.4¢ → 68.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Yandex at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 errormargin3 | Team Yandexavg 69¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$21.75 | 55% 236-195 (431) |
WE wewbo | Team Yandexavg 66¢ | $988.02 | $1.0K | +$37.43 | 52% 134-126 (260) |
BA babyboy9 | Team Yandexavg 68.9¢ | $1,000 | $994.04 | -$5.96 | 54% 334-284 (618) |
AC acorpCTR | Astra Invictaavg 31¢ | $803.83 | $803.83 | +$38.9 | 49% 613-629 (1242) |
VI vibing123CTR | Astra Invictaavg 31¢ | $332.59 | $337.95 | +$5.36 | 52% 1541-1426 (2967) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Yandexavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.43 | +$0.08 | 47% 2038-2342 (4380) |
errormargin3Invested
$3,001.48
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$21.75
Record
55%
236-195 (431)
Invested
$988.02
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$37.43
Record
52%
134-126 (260)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$994.04
PnL
-$5.96
Record
54%
334-284 (618)
Invested
$803.83
Value
$803.83
PnL
+$38.9
Record
49%
613-629 (1242)
Invested
$332.59
Value
$337.95
PnL
+$5.36
Record
52%
1541-1426 (2967)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0.08
Record
47%
2038-2342 (4380)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.