Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (75%) · Team Yandex at 91¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Team Yandex
8
Team Yandex 75%
$3.4K
$23.01
90.5¢ → 90.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Yandex at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OJ ojgtubvdt | Team Yandexavg 91¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0 | 62% 641-385 (1026) |
PN pnhct | Team Yandexavg 89.9¢ | $589.71 | $590.79 | +$1.08 | 54% 451-390 (841) |
 CORGIICTR | Astra Invictaavg 9¢ | $562.1 | $562.1 | +$0 | 41% 385-555 (940) |
YI yishiwucheng | Team Yandexavg 89¢ | $396.66 | $415.89 | +$19.23 | 41% 642-914 (1556) |
VO Volodyabandit | Team Yandexavg 91¢ | $250 | $250 | -$0 | 76% 256-83 (339) |
 poshposh<$100 | Team Yandexavg 90¢ | $73.31 | $75.34 | +$2.04 | 60% 9362-6344 (15706) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Team Yandexavg 91¢ | $6.65 | $11.4 | +$0.05 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
AC acorpCTR<$100 | Astra Invictaavg 8¢ | $3.25 | $3.66 | +$0.61 | 49% 613-629 (1242) |
Invested
$1,456
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
62%
641-385 (1026)
Invested
$589.71
Value
$590.79
PnL
+$1.08
Record
54%
451-390 (841)
CORGIICTRInvested
$562.1
Value
$562.1
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
385-555 (940)
Invested
$396.66
Value
$415.89
PnL
+$19.23
Record
41%
642-914 (1556)
Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
-$0
Record
76%
256-83 (339)
poshposh<$100Invested
$73.31
Value
$75.34
PnL
+$2.04
Record
60%
9362-6344 (15706)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.66
PnL
+$0.61
Record
49%
613-629 (1242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.