Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (50%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $848 held · ends Oct 30

PARIVISION<1¢Team Spirit>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 50%

Total Value

$847.72

Combined PnL

-$272.83

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION0%

Team Spirit100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit2 traders

Total Value$847.25

Total Shares848

Combined PnL-$0.78

PARIVISION2 traders

Total Value$0.47

Total Shares940

Combined PnL-$272.06

Team Spirit — 50%PARIVISION — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Team Spiritavg 99.9¢	$769.48	$769.86	+$0.39	98% 12937-204 (13141)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Team Spiritavg 71¢	$55	$77.38	-$1.16	65% 1700-920 (2620)
forsenxdCTR	PARIVISIONavg 29¢	$270.35	$0.47	-$269.88	53% 1057-923 (1980)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	PARIVISIONavg 28¢	$7.78	$0	-$2.17	47% 2257-2545 (4802)

zxc368

Team Spirit

Invested

$769.48

Value

$769.86

PnL

+$0.39

Record

98%

12937-204 (13141)

darkumbreon88<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$55

Value

$77.38

PnL

-$1.16

Record

65%

1700-920 (2620)

forsenxdCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$270.35

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$269.88

Record

53%

1057-923 (1980)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$7.78

Value

PnL

-$2.17

Record

47%

2257-2545 (4802)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.