Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Team Spirit, while the market favors PARIVISION (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (60%) · Team Spirit at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Team Spirit
5
Team Spirit 60%
$7.9K
-$25.62
47¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Spirit at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors PARIVISION 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEXCTR | Team Spiritavg 47¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | -$50 | 58% 294-214 (508) |
 yabanci | PARIVISIONavg 53¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$26.93 | 55% 60-49 (109) |
MR MrConsistencyCTR | Team Spiritavg 48¢ | $249.99 | $244.79 | -$2.6 | 39% 559-861 (1420) |
 Basquetipster | PARIVISIONavg 53¢ | $150 | $150 | +$0 | 68% 1662-766 (2428) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Team Spiritavg 45¢ | $1.08 | $1.13 | +$0.05 | 52% 3925-3577 (7502) |
Invested
$4,699.96
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$50
Record
58%
294-214 (508)
yabanciInvested
$2,854.09
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$26.93
Record
55%
60-49 (109)
Invested
$249.99
Value
$244.79
PnL
-$2.6
Record
39%
559-861 (1420)
BasquetipsterInvested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
1662-766 (2428)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
3925-3577 (7502)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.