Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner

30 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (68%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $127K held · ends Oct 28

Team Spirit>99¢OG<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 68%

Total Value

$127.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.2K

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

30 of 44 top traders (68%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit100%

OG0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit30 traders

Total Value$111.2K

Total Shares131,150

Combined PnL+$831.73

OG14 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares127,044

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Team Spirit — 68%OG — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 86.9¢	$20.1K	$20.2K	+$13.35	54% 456-393 (849)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 73.6¢	$18.0K	$18.0K	-$32.2	58% 884-644 (1528)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Spiritavg 73.4¢	$12.0K	$11.8K	-$150.17	54% 1067-925 (1992)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 89.4¢	$12.0K	$11.2K	-$787.22	69% 479-215 (694)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 78.6¢	$8.6K	$9.0K	+$370.78	71% 146-61 (207)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 93.6¢	$8.3K	$8.5K	+$166.34	63% 292-168 (460)
ST StakesForFun	Team Spiritavg 90.7¢	$13.0K	$6.2K	+$715.99	63% 370-215 (585)
Medo3DCTR	OGavg 19.8¢	$7.2K	$6.0K	$-1.2K	39% 157-245 (402)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	OGavg 25.5¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$0	44% 62-78 (140)
99 999999666544332578855667788	Team Spiritavg 74¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$25.74	57% 628-468 (1096)
PI pipipi150	Team Spiritavg 86.9¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$205.96	65% 1713-915 (2628)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$155.42	56% 153-118 (271)
TR Trungl	Team Spiritavg 74¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$15	61% 391-253 (644)
SkritopoolniyCTR	OGavg 23.2¢	$3.5K	$2.2K	$-1.3K	48% 598-635 (1233)
KA KaguyaNg	Team Spiritavg 72¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$14.44	49% 337-351 (688)
DE depresssin	Team Spiritavg 99.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0.95	85% 1258-225 (1483)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Team Spiritavg 73.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$35.24	50% 535-533 (1068)
MA madar78	Team Spiritavg 88.4¢	$4.3K	$1.8K	-$7.43	70% 51-22 (73)
WE wewbo	Team Spiritavg 75.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$130.22	52% 136-127 (263)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 83¢	$1,000	$988.05	-$11.95	54% 337-284 (621)
YI yishiwucheng	Team Spiritavg 76.2¢	$720.23	$871	+$150.78	41% 645-918 (1563)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	OGavg 21.5¢	$1.0K	$718.84	-$312.69	48% 788-838 (1626)
Q7 q7662504	Team Spiritavg 92¢	$704.83	$708.66	+$3.83	89% 365-47 (412)
LU luckycat888888CTR	OGavg 28¢	$710.99	$698.29	-$12.7	47% 25-28 (53)
BI BillBenter2026	Team Spiritavg 91¢	$654.99	$609.13	-$87.02	58% 18402-13504 (31906)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$20,137.04

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$13.35

Record

54%

456-393 (849)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$18,000

Value

$18.0K

PnL

-$32.2

Record

58%

884-644 (1528)

GeorgeRe

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,976.02

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$150.17

Record

54%

1067-925 (1992)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,979.3

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$787.22

Record

69%

479-215 (694)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,607.71

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$370.78

Record

71%

146-61 (207)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,331.71

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$166.34

Record

63%

292-168 (460)

StakesForFun

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,023.89

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$715.99

Record

63%

370-215 (585)

Medo3DCTR

Invested

$7,156.84

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

39%

157-245 (402)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Invested

$5,099.99

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

62-78 (140)

999999666544332578855667788

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,809.51

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$25.74

Record

57%

628-468 (1096)

pipipi150

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,590.08

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$205.96

Record

65%

1713-915 (2628)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,571.6

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$155.42

Record

56%

153-118 (271)

Trungl

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,220

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

61%

391-253 (644)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Invested

$3,481.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

598-635 (1233)

KaguyaNg

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,078.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$14.44

Record

49%

337-351 (688)

depresssin

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,906.09

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0.95

Record

85%

1258-225 (1483)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,789.18

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$35.24

Record

50%

535-533 (1068)

madar78

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,320.15

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$7.43

Record

70%

51-22 (73)

wewbo

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,251.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$130.22

Record

52%

136-127 (263)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,000

Value

$988.05

PnL

-$11.95

Record

54%

337-284 (621)

yishiwucheng

Team Spirit

Invested

$720.23

Value

$871

PnL

+$150.78

Record

41%

645-918 (1563)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Invested

$1,031.53

Value

$718.84

PnL

-$312.69

Record

48%

788-838 (1626)

q7662504

Team Spirit

Invested

$704.83

Value

$708.66

PnL

+$3.83

Record

89%

365-47 (412)

luckycat888888CTR

Invested

$710.99

Value

$698.29

PnL

-$12.7

Record

47%

25-28 (53)

BillBenter2026

Team Spirit

Invested

$654.99

Value

$609.13

PnL

-$87.02

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

30 of 44 top traders (68%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.