Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold OG, while the market favors Team Spirit (78%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold OG (80%) · OG at 23¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 28

Team Spirit78¢OG22¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

OG 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

$383.8

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 22.5¢

-43% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOG at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Team Spirit 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit78%

OG23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit2 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares20,929

Combined PnL+$159.41

OG8 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares37,542

Combined PnL+$224.39

Team Spirit — 20%OG — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxd	Team Spiritavg 58¢	$10.1K	$10.1K	+$86.73	53% 1041-906 (1947)
LU luckycat888888CTR	OGavg 38¢	$5.9K	$6.8K	+$930	47% 25-28 (53)
VI vibing123CTR	OGavg 43¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$120.34	52% 1544-1428 (2972)
iceblue-	Team Spiritavg 56.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$72.69	43% 796-1063 (1859)
ReformedxCTR	OGavg 39¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$260	52% 791-734 (1525)
LI LinkE5CTR	OGavg 39¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$746.48	48% 695-766 (1461)
eblomixerCTR	OGavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15	57% 487-367 (854)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	OGavg 40¢	$402.8	$452.75	-$100.04	41% 645-918 (1563)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	OGavg 41¢	$243.95	$255.85	+$14.88	47% 2407-2692 (5099)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 63¢	$60.94	$71.34	+$10.41	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
└ OG leg	OGavg 30¢	$25.5	$44.63	+$19.13
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 63¢	$35.44	$26.72	-$8.72
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	OGavg 41¢	$37.57	$39.4	+$1.37	53% 5500-4845 (10345)

forsenxd

Team Spirit

Invested

$10,058.31

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$86.73

Record

53%

1041-906 (1947)

luckycat888888CTR

Invested

$5,889.99

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$930

Record

47%

25-28 (53)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$3,450.11

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$120.34

Record

52%

1544-1428 (2972)

iceblue-

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,025.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$72.69

Record

43%

796-1063 (1859)

ReformedxCTR

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$260

Record

52%

791-734 (1525)

LinkE5CTR

Invested

$2,079.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$746.48

Record

48%

695-766 (1461)

eblomixerCTR

Invested

$1,170

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

487-367 (854)

yishiwuchengCTR

Invested

$402.8

Value

$452.75

PnL

-$100.04

Record

41%

645-918 (1563)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$243.95

Value

$255.85

PnL

+$14.88

Record

47%

2407-2692 (5099)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$60.94

Value

$71.34

PnL

+$10.41

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

Both legs:

OG$25.530¢+$19.13

Team Spirit$35.4463¢-$8.72

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Invested

$37.57

Value

$39.4

PnL

+$1.37

Record

53%

5500-4845 (10345)

Research grade

AvoidOG at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Team Spirit 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.