Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (80%) · Team Spirit at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Team Spirit
5
Team Spirit 80%
$1.9K
-$50.68
80¢ → 83.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Spirit at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Team Spiritavg 80¢ | $800 | $825 | +$25 | 53% 5485-4832 (10317) |
TG tghj20CTR | OGavg 20.4¢ | $655 | $562.67 | -$92.33 | 48% 44-47 (91) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Team Spiritavg 80¢ | $250.27 | $258.09 | +$7.82 | 47% 2385-2661 (5046) |
 VeryLucky888 | Team Spiritavg 79.7¢ | $239 | $247.5 | +$8.5 | 58% 40596-29352 (69948) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Team Spiritavg 82¢ | $53.61 | $53.94 | +$0.33 | 68% 1652-761 (2413) |
Invested
$800
Value
$825
PnL
+$25
Record
53%
5485-4832 (10317)
Invested
$655
Value
$562.67
PnL
-$92.33
Record
48%
44-47 (91)
Invested
$250.27
Value
$258.09
PnL
+$7.82
Record
47%
2385-2661 (5046)
VeryLucky888Invested
$239
Value
$247.5
PnL
+$8.5
Record
58%
40596-29352 (69948)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$53.61
Value
$53.94
PnL
+$0.33
Record
68%
1652-761 (2413)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.