Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

20 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (48%) · Team Spirit at 96¢ · $205K held · ends Oct 30

Team Spirit96¢Team Liquid4¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 48%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$204.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 95.6¢

+29% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

20 of 42 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit96%

Team Liquid4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit20 traders

Total Value$148.3K

Total Shares210,276

Combined PnL$-10.8K

Team Liquid22 traders

Total Value$49.3K

Total Shares158,620

Combined PnL+$9.6K

Team Spirit — 48%Team Liquid — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTeam Liquid 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Team Liquid 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 67.7¢	$50.0K	$49.1K	-$904.58	58% 900-651 (1551)
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 84.8¢	$19.8K	$19.6K	-$187.31	54% 501-429 (930)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Spiritavg 74.3¢	$17.5K	$12.7K	$-1.7K	54% 1082-933 (2015)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 80.7¢	$15.9K	$12.2K	$-2.8K	70% 158-67 (225)
CyberScore.liveCTR	Team Liquidavg 30¢	$10.0K	$11.2K	+$1.2K	46% 406-474 (880)
relativesignificance	Team Spiritavg 69.8¢	$16.5K	$9.6K	-$666.87	57% 102-78 (180)
errormargin3	Team Spiritavg 73.6¢	$11.0K	$8.6K	-$886.49	53% 242-211 (453)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 37.1¢	$8.0K	$6.7K	$-1.2K	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 37.1¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$408.74
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 85.5¢	$3.8K	$2.9K	-$841.14
LU luckycat888888CTR	Team Liquidavg 29¢	$4.6K	$5.4K	+$720	53% 50-44 (94)
AU authfeez	Team Spiritavg 74.5¢	$5.5K	$4.9K	-$594.32	— 1-7 (8)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 88.8¢	$5.8K	$4.7K	$-1.1K	69% 495-219 (714)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Liquidavg 26¢	$3.4K	$4.3K	+$969.6	48% 607-646 (1253)
dodsterbotCTR	Team Liquidavg 31.2¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$300.91	46% 628-731 (1359)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Spiritavg 80.5¢	$5.1K	$4.1K	+$266.86	60% 526-344 (870)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Spiritavg 78¢	$7.8K	$3.8K	-$915.97	69% 298-131 (429)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 82.8¢	$5.3K	$3.4K	$-1.2K	63% 306-176 (482)
LI LinkE5CTR	Team Liquidavg 28.9¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$458.85	47% 702-781 (1483)
forsenxdCTR	Team Liquidavg 32¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$129.51	53% 1060-928 (1988)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR	Team Liquidavg 24.4¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$627.84	57% 164-125 (289)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Spiritavg 76.9¢	$20.1K	$2.7K	+$1.3K	68% 78-37 (115)
Medo3DCTR	Team Liquidavg 30¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$274.52	40% 169-253 (422)
BE BettongCTR	Team Liquidavg 8.3¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	+$2.3K	55% 336-272 (608)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 74.8¢	$6.0K	$2.5K	-$437.24	54% 352-294 (646)
1R 1rerrr	Team Spiritavg 61.8¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$84.06	51% 1301-1275 (2576)
Up0nly	Team Spiritavg 80.1¢	$4.6K	$2.3K	-$580.75	68% 975-467 (1442)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$50,035.6

Value

$49.1K

PnL

-$904.58

Record

58%

900-651 (1551)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$19,811.57

Value

$19.6K

PnL

-$187.31

Record

54%

501-429 (930)

GeorgeRe

Team Spirit

Invested

$17,470.6

Value

$12.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

1082-933 (2015)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$15,879.13

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

70%

158-67 (225)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,000

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

46%

406-474 (880)

relativesignificance

Team Spirit

Invested

$16,501.65

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$666.87

Record

57%

102-78 (180)

errormargin3

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,000

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$886.49

Record

53%

242-211 (453)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,981.63

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$4,203.1137.1¢-$408.74

Team Spirit$3,778.5285.5¢-$841.14

luckycat888888CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,639.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$720

Record

53%

50-44 (94)

authfeez

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,535.97

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$594.32

Record

—

1-7 (8)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,762.48

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

69%

495-219 (714)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,361.28

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$969.6

Record

48%

607-646 (1253)

dodsterbotCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,011.19

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$300.91

Record

46%

628-731 (1359)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,109.94

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$266.86

Record

60%

526-344 (870)

qwerqr1251251

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,769.61

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$915.97

Record

69%

298-131 (429)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,272.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

63%

306-176 (482)

LinkE5CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,899.26

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$458.85

Record

47%

702-781 (1483)

forsenxdCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,844.01

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$129.51

Record

53%

1060-928 (1988)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,478.44

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$627.84

Record

57%

164-125 (289)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Spirit

Invested

$20,086.85

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

68%

78-37 (115)

Medo3DCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,353.04

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$274.52

Record

40%

169-253 (422)

BettongCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,996.52

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

55%

336-272 (608)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$437.24

Record

54%

352-294 (646)

1rerrr

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,313.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$84.06

Record

51%

1301-1275 (2576)

Up0nly

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,648.59

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$580.75

Record

68%

975-467 (1442)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

20 of 42 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTeam Liquid 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Team Liquid 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.