Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs
11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (79%) · Team Spirit at 91¢ · $56K held · ends Oct 30
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Research candidate
Team Spirit
14
Team Spirit 79%
1 arb excluded
$56.0K
$3.0K
72.7¢ → 90.5¢
+25% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
Research candidateTeam Spirit at 91%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QI qiu3 | Team Spiritavg 72.4¢ | $20.8K | $20.8K | -$12.49 | 58% 37-27 (64) |
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616 | Team Spiritavg 75¢ | $12.0K | $11.1K | +$2.3K | 49% 1157-1208 (2365) |
MA madkkee | Team Spiritavg 72.9¢ | $5.1K | $5.0K | -$38.61 | 66% 1033-527 (1560) |
LU luckycat888888CTR | Team Liquidavg 25¢ | $4.2K | $4.7K | +$444.25 | 53% 50-44 (94) |
 forsenxd | Team Spiritavg 69.7¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$121.8 | 53% 1060-928 (1988) |
 Chopperyyy | Team Spiritavg 72.4¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$0 | 64% 378-215 (593) |
PN pnhctARB<$100 | Team Spiritavg 79.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$18.18 | 54% 501-429 (930) |
| └ Team Spirit leg | Team Spiritavg 79.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$200.51 | |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 20.2¢ | $594.87 | $813.57 | +$218.7 | |
 Tokenn | Team Spiritavg 71¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$92.56 | 48% 656-710 (1366) |
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Team Spiritavg 72.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$2.85 | 58% 900-651 (1551) |
VE Vetch | Team Spiritavg 69¢ | $258.09 | $270.75 | +$13.09 | 61% 360-235 (595) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR | Team Liquidavg 17.5¢ | $70 | $110.45 | +$40.45 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
 BIessCTR<$100 | Team Liquidavg 31¢ | $90 | $80.17 | -$9.83 | 45% 286-349 (635) |
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100 | Team Spiritavg 70¢ | $56 | $57.91 | +$1.91 | 55% 258-208 (466) |
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100 | Team Spiritavg 71.3¢ | $56.7 | $57.35 | +$0.65 | 54% 1089-941 (2030) |
TR tripleh0829<$100 | Team Spiritavg 72¢ | $30 | $30.16 | -$0.21 | 68% 205-98 (303) |
Invested
$20,764.9
Value
$20.8K
PnL
-$12.49
Record
58%
37-27 (64)
Invested
$12,023.61
Value
$11.1K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
49%
1157-1208 (2365)
Invested
$5,051.44
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$38.61
Record
66%
1033-527 (1560)
Invested
$4,249.99
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$444.25
Record
53%
50-44 (94)
forsenxdInvested
$3,151.2
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$121.8
Record
53%
1060-928 (1988)
ChopperyyyInvested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
378-215 (593)
Invested
$2,861.87
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$18.18
Record
54%
501-429 (930)
Both legs:
TokennInvested
$2,628.69
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$92.56
Record
48%
656-710 (1366)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$2.85
Record
58%
900-651 (1551)
Invested
$258.09
Value
$270.75
PnL
+$13.09
Record
61%
360-235 (595)
Invested
$70
Value
$110.45
PnL
+$40.45
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
BIessCTR<$100Invested
$90
Value
$80.17
PnL
-$9.83
Record
45%
286-349 (635)
Invested
$56
Value
$57.91
PnL
+$1.91
Record
55%
258-208 (466)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$57.35
PnL
+$0.65
Record
54%
1089-941 (2030)
Invested
$30
Value
$30.16
PnL
-$0.21
Record
68%
205-98 (303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
qiu3
Team Spirit — $20.8K
0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616
Team Spirit — $11.1K
madkkee
Team Spirit — $5.0K
luckycat888888
CTRTeam Liquid — $4.7K
forsenxd
Team Spirit — $3.3K
Chopperyyy
Team Spirit — $3.0K
pnhct
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Tokenn
Team Spirit — $2.7K
0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592
Team Spirit — $2.0K
Vetch
Team Spirit — $270.75