Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (58%) · Team Spirit at 81¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 29

Team Spirit81¢LEGION19¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 58%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 80.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit81%

LEGION20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares43,644

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Team Spirit7 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares17,301

Combined PnL+$1.0K

LEGION — 42%Team Spirit — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CyberScore.liveCTR	LEGIONavg 24.6¢	$10.5K	$7.9K	$-2.6K	46% 401-469 (870)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$6.0K	$4.5K	+$475.34	64% 298-171 (469)
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 78¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$102.27	54% 475-405 (880)
SP sportteryqq	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$183.04	40% 412-624 (1036)
AR arbmonitor	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$150.8	44% 562-723 (1285)
AN anyjezz	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$131.65	49% 529-547 (1076)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Spiritavg 83.3¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$2.27	70% 293-128 (421)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	LEGIONavg 20¢	$100	$97.5	-$2.5	57% 718-548 (1266)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Team Spiritavg 82¢	$95.12	$94.54	-$0.58	58% 18486-13571 (32057)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 20¢	$63.46	$61.87	-$1.59	49% 18814-19213 (38027)
maytopmayCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 20¢	$20.03	$19.53	-$0.5	61% 278-177 (455)
eblomixerCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 17¢	$1.55	$1.65	+$0.09	57% 491-371 (862)

CyberScore.liveCTR

LEGION

Invested

$10,490.22

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

46%

401-469 (870)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$475.34

Record

64%

298-171 (469)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,914.7

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$102.27

Record

54%

475-405 (880)

sportteryqq

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,112

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$183.04

Record

40%

412-624 (1036)

arbmonitor

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,740

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$150.8

Record

44%

562-723 (1285)

anyjezz

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,518.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$131.65

Record

49%

529-547 (1076)

qwerqr1251251

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.27

Record

70%

293-128 (421)

Sisyphus-CTR

LEGION

Invested

$100

Value

$97.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

718-548 (1266)

BillBenter2026<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$95.12

Value

$94.54

PnL

-$0.58

Record

58%

18486-13571 (32057)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$63.46

Value

$61.87

PnL

-$1.59

Record

49%

18814-19213 (38027)

maytopmayCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$20.03

Value

$19.53

PnL

-$0.5

Record

61%

278-177 (455)

eblomixerCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

491-371 (862)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.