Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

31 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (61%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $175K held · ends Oct 29

Team Spirit>99¢LEGION<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$175.2K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

31 of 51 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit100%

LEGION0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit31 traders

Total Value$121.7K

Total Shares149,618

Combined PnL+$532.21

LEGION20 traders

Total Value$50.9K

Total Shares214,004

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Team Spirit — 61%LEGION — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 74.3¢	$25.0K	$24.1K	-$937.63	58% 888-649 (1537)
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 80¢	$23.3K	$23.3K	-$17.88	54% 475-405 (880)
CyberScore.liveCTR	LEGIONavg 29¢	$16.4K	$16.2K	-$283.6	46% 401-469 (870)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 72.8¢	$7.9K	$8.5K	+$621.65	70% 150-64 (214)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 77.5¢	$8.6K	$8.4K	-$287.86	69% 486-217 (703)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	LEGIONavg 15.8¢	$4.3K	$8.1K	+$3.7K	49% 1152-1196 (2348)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 74.1¢	$5.8K	$6.6K	+$850.16	54% 342-289 (631)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	LEGIONavg 22.7¢	$6.8K	$6.1K	-$649.99	45% 66-81 (147)
0X 0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492	Team Spiritavg 84.3¢	$6.3K	$5.1K	$-1.1K	69% 75-33 (108)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Spiritavg 70.1¢	$4.4K	$4.7K	+$295.24	48% 793-844 (1637)
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Spiritavg 98¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$325	79% 34-9 (43)
Medo3DCTR	LEGIONavg 23.9¢	$3.7K	$4.6K	+$863.32	39% 162-249 (411)
errormargin3	Team Spiritavg 71¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$28.17	54% 237-204 (441)
SK skibidipa	Team Spiritavg 70.4¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$58.55	67% 14-7 (21)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	LEGIONavg 25¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$70.15	58% 1856-1333 (3189)
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Spiritavg 81.3¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$32.81	49% 18814-19213 (38027)
RR rrooster	Team Spiritavg 84.8¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$248.59	63% 1324-787 (2111)
PI pipipi150	Team Spiritavg 83.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$192.98	65% 1723-917 (2640)
ST StakesForFun	Team Spiritavg 83.2¢	$21.4K	$2.6K	+$683.32	64% 376-216 (592)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 72.5¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$302.8	64% 298-171 (469)
1R 1rerrr	Team Spiritavg 71¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$17.5	51% 1294-1268 (2562)
GE GeorgeReCTR	LEGIONavg 26.5¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	+$57.55	54% 1072-930 (2002)
SW swiftFoxx	Team Spiritavg 76¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.66	70% 50-21 (71)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	Team Spiritavg 86¢	$3.2K	$2.1K	+$137.89	57% 158-121 (279)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	LEGIONavg 26.7¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$7.51	57% 718-548 (1266)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$25,000

Value

$24.1K

PnL

-$937.63

Record

58%

888-649 (1537)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$23,326.66

Value

$23.3K

PnL

-$17.88

Record

54%

475-405 (880)

CyberScore.liveCTR

LEGION

Invested

$16,448.77

Value

$16.2K

PnL

-$283.6

Record

46%

401-469 (870)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,919.91

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$621.65

Record

70%

150-64 (214)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,638.21

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$287.86

Record

69%

486-217 (703)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

LEGION

Invested

$4,327.9

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

49%

1152-1196 (2348)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,795.47

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$850.16

Record

54%

342-289 (631)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

LEGION

Invested

$6,799.95

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$649.99

Record

45%

66-81 (147)

0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,280

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

69%

75-33 (108)

RandomVibecoder

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,422.65

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$295.24

Record

48%

793-844 (1637)

GooGooGaga1

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,900

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$325

Record

79%

34-9 (43)

Medo3DCTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,702.58

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$863.32

Record

39%

162-249 (411)

errormargin3

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$28.17

Record

54%

237-204 (441)

skibidipa

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,776.7

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$58.55

Record

67%

14-7 (21)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,499.83

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$70.15

Record

58%

1856-1333 (3189)

omnibus-076daa

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,540.72

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$32.81

Record

49%

18814-19213 (38027)

rrooster

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,135.07

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$248.59

Record

63%

1324-787 (2111)

pipipi150

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,547.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$192.98

Record

65%

1723-917 (2640)

StakesForFun

Team Spirit

Invested

$21,366.63

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$683.32

Record

64%

376-216 (592)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$302.8

Record

64%

298-171 (469)

1rerrr

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,485

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

51%

1294-1268 (2562)

GeorgeReCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,797.74

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$57.55

Record

54%

1072-930 (2002)

swiftFoxx

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,178.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.66

Record

70%

50-21 (71)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,184.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$137.89

Record

57%

158-121 (279)

Sisyphus-CTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,020.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$7.51

Record

57%

718-548 (1266)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

31 of 51 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.