Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (100%) · Team Spirit at 99¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 29

Team Spirit>99¢LEGION<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$24.5

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit99%

LEGION1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit8 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares16,629

Combined PnL-$24.5

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 93.8¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$38.42	54% 478-406 (884)
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	Team Spiritavg 96¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$26.46	67% 422-204 (626)
AM ameisgoat11	Team Spiritavg 91.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$21.1	47% 2163-2470 (4633)
PI pipipi150	Team Spiritavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.25	65% 1724-917 (2641)
VO Volodyabandit	Team Spiritavg 91.1¢	$550	$555.56	-$9.54	76% 265-85 (350)
BI BillBenter2026	Team Spiritavg 90.4¢	$466.46	$441.7	-$24.77	58% 18489-13574 (32063)
poshposh	Team Spiritavg 88.8¢	$266.25	$286.5	+$20.25	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	LEGIONavg 11¢	$103.3	$82.93	-$20.36	51% 1786-1717 (3503)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 91¢	$45.5	$46	+$0.5
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 11¢	$57.8	$36.93	-$20.86
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100	Team Spiritavg 89.7¢	$82.4	$81.35	-$1.05	54% 1064-917 (1981)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,659.79

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$38.42

Record

54%

478-406 (884)

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,618.89

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$26.46

Record

67%

422-204 (626)

ameisgoat11

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,136.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$21.1

Record

47%

2163-2470 (4633)

pipipi150

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,491.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.25

Record

65%

1724-917 (2641)

Volodyabandit

Team Spirit

Invested

$550

Value

$555.56

PnL

-$9.54

Record

76%

265-85 (350)

BillBenter2026

Team Spirit

Invested

$466.46

Value

$441.7

PnL

-$24.77

Record

58%

18489-13574 (32063)

poshposh

Team Spirit

Invested

$266.25

Value

$286.5

PnL

+$20.25

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$103.3

Value

$82.93

PnL

-$20.36

Record

51%

1786-1717 (3503)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$45.591¢+$0.5

LEGION$57.811¢-$20.86

TommyLeePeeca<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$82.4

Value

$81.35

PnL

-$1.05

Record

54%

1064-917 (1981)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.