Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

23 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (56%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $182K held · ends Oct 31

Team Spirit>99¢GamerLegion<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$181.5K

Combined PnL

$9.4K

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

23 of 41 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit100%

GamerLegion0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit23 traders

Total Value$155.1K

Total Shares181,849

Combined PnL+$11.4K

GamerLegion18 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares78,888

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Team Spirit — 56%GamerLegion — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 76.4¢	$31.4K	$31.2K	-$233.15	53% 520-454 (974)
Sunshine.Smile	Team Spiritavg 70.4¢	$27.8K	$29.6K	+$1.8K	58% 1864-1345 (3209)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 72.2¢	$15.2K	$15.8K	+$597.9	58% 905-653 (1558)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 78.4¢	$13.6K	$15.7K	+$2.1K	69% 499-221 (720)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 83.3¢	$14.1K	$15.4K	+$1.3K	70% 163-69 (232)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Spiritavg 74.4¢	$8.0K	$8.8K	+$815.77	69% 301-134 (435)
TY tyutgbhnm	Team Spiritavg 72.5¢	$7.9K	$8.2K	+$273.1	53% 48-43 (91)
Medo3DARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 65¢	$6.9K	$7.2K	+$365.62	40% 171-258 (429)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 65¢	$4.7K	$5.4K	+$725.59
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 30¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$359.97
CyberScore.liveCTR	GamerLegionavg 29¢	$6.7K	$5.8K	-$919.17	46% 407-479 (886)
MA madar78	Team Spiritavg 80.2¢	$21.4K	$5.5K	+$302.41	67% 68-33 (101)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Spiritavg 75.2¢	$27.3K	$5.2K	+$2.4K	68% 86-41 (127)
LU luckycat888888CTR	GamerLegionavg 30¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$750	51% 60-57 (117)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 74.1¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$40.23	55% 358-294 (652)
cat3xcat3x	Team Spiritavg 72¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$125	56% 334-265 (599)
Reformedx	Team Spiritavg 72.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$84	52% 831-778 (1609)
Up0nly	Team Spiritavg 77.5¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$401.58	68% 978-470 (1448)
SkritopoolniyCTR	GamerLegionavg 27¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$156.67	48% 608-649 (1257)
OtecBednosti	Team Spiritavg 80.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$128.23	50% 139-138 (277)
A8 a8999CTR	GamerLegionavg 26.8¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$123.96	44% 1094-1399 (2493)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Spiritavg 74.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$246	61% 530-345 (875)
GE GeorgeReCTR	GamerLegionavg 28.4¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$229.75	54% 1089-933 (2022)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 66.9¢	$926.48	$1.2K	+$241.65	49% 810-851 (1661)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 66.9¢	$543.21	$608.58	+$65.37
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 17.1¢	$383.27	$559.55	+$176.28
IV Ivan948CTR	GamerLegionavg 26.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$80.26	44% 74-94 (168)
WE wewbo	Team Spiritavg 71.8¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	+$95.41	51% 147-139 (286)
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Spiritavg 83¢	$992.06	$896.44	-$95.62	78% 39-11 (50)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$31,393.89

Value

$31.2K

PnL

-$233.15

Record

53%

520-454 (974)

Sunshine.Smile

Team Spirit

Invested

$27,799.98

Value

$29.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

58%

1864-1345 (3209)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$15,175.45

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$597.9

Record

58%

905-653 (1558)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,566.65

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

69%

499-221 (720)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$14,139.75

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

70%

163-69 (232)

qwerqr1251251

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,999.99

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$815.77

Record

69%

301-134 (435)

tyutgbhnm

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,880.97

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$273.1

Record

53%

48-43 (91)

Medo3DARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,876.14

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$365.62

Record

40%

171-258 (429)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$4,716.3265¢+$725.59

GamerLegion$2,159.8230¢-$359.97

CyberScore.liveCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$6,679.56

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$919.17

Record

46%

407-479 (886)

madar78

Team Spirit

Invested

$21,372.36

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$302.41

Record

67%

68-33 (101)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Spirit

Invested

$27,347.88

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

68%

86-41 (127)

luckycat888888CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,500

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$750

Record

51%

60-57 (117)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,224.59

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$40.23

Record

55%

358-294 (652)

cat3xcat3x

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$125

Record

56%

334-265 (599)

Reformedx

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,976

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$84

Record

52%

831-778 (1609)

Up0nly

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,839.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$401.58

Record

68%

978-470 (1448)

SkritopoolniyCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,115

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$156.67

Record

48%

608-649 (1257)

OtecBednosti

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$128.23

Record

50%

139-138 (277)

a8999CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,333.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$123.96

Record

44%

1094-1399 (2493)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,649.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$246

Record

61%

530-345 (875)

GeorgeReCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,901

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$229.75

Record

54%

1089-933 (2022)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$926.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$241.65

Record

49%

810-851 (1661)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$543.2166.9¢+$65.37

GamerLegion$383.2717.1¢+$176.28

Ivan948CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,130.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$80.26

Record

44%

74-94 (168)

wewbo

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,330.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$95.41

Record

51%

147-139 (286)

GooGooGaga1

Team Spirit

Invested

$992.06

Value

$896.44

PnL

-$95.62

Record

78%

39-11 (50)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

23 of 41 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.