Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (69%) · Team Spirit at 87¢ · $40K held · ends Oct 31

Team Spirit87¢GamerLegion13¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$194.5

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 86.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateTeam Spirit at 87%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit87%

GamerLegion14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit9 traders

Total Value$26.5K

Total Shares31,865

Combined PnL-$262.07

GamerLegion4 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares44,761

Combined PnL+$456.57

Team Spirit — 69%GamerLegion — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGamerLegion 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Team Spirit 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Chopperyyy	Team Spiritavg 82¢	$12.3K	$12.2K	-$75	64% 379-215 (594)
TY tyutgbhnm	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$8.4K	$8.2K	-$200	52% 47-43 (90)
CORGIICTR	GamerLegionavg 17.5¢	$7.6K	$8.0K	+$428.36	41% 394-567 (961)
TokennARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$4.6K	$4.9K	+$289.04	48% 656-714 (1370)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$79.5
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 15.5¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$368.54
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Spiritavg 86.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$55.03	61% 529-345 (874)
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 79.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$13.35	53% 517-450 (967)
VO Volodyabandit	Team Spiritavg 85¢	$1,000	$964.71	-$35.29	76% 271-86 (357)
OJ ojgtubvdt	Team Spiritavg 82.8¢	$827.99	$814.99	-$13	62% 644-392 (1036)
TR tripleh0829	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$294	$287	-$7	67% 207-103 (310)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	GamerLegionavg 15.7¢	$156.56	$180	+$23.44	53% 5636-4973 (10609)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	GamerLegionavg 10¢	$17.18	$19.76	+$2.58	51% 202-192 (394)
forsenxdCTR<$100	GamerLegionavg 16¢	$14.01	$16.2	+$2.19	53% 1071-935 (2006)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Team Spiritavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.15	-$0.05	51% 1453-1400 (2853)
ColdW<$100	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.1	-$0.1	61% 2015-1297 (3312)

Chopperyyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$12,300

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$75

Record

64%

379-215 (594)

tyutgbhnm

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,400

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$200

Record

52%

47-43 (90)

CORGIICTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$7,619.46

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$428.36

Record

41%

394-567 (961)

TokennARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,561.44

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$289.04

Record

48%

656-714 (1370)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$2,671.284¢-$79.5

GamerLegion$1,890.2415.5¢+$368.54

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,406.19

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$55.03

Record

61%

529-345 (874)

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,495.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.35

Record

53%

517-450 (967)

Volodyabandit

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,000

Value

$964.71

PnL

-$35.29

Record

76%

271-86 (357)

ojgtubvdt

Team Spirit

Invested

$827.99

Value

$814.99

PnL

-$13

Record

62%

644-392 (1036)

tripleh0829

Team Spirit

Invested

$294

Value

$287

PnL

-$7

Record

67%

207-103 (310)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$156.56

Value

$180

PnL

+$23.44

Record

53%

5636-4973 (10609)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$17.18

Value

$19.76

PnL

+$2.58

Record

51%

202-192 (394)

forsenxdCTR<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$14.01

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

1071-935 (2006)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1453-1400 (2853)

ColdW<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

61%

2015-1297 (3312)

Research grade

Research candidateTeam Spirit at 87%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGamerLegion 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Team Spirit 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.