Dota 2: Team Synapse vs SOLID - Game 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (80%) · Team Synapse at 100¢ · $961 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Team Synapse
5
Team Synapse 80%
$960.85
$127.57
61.7¢ → 100¢
+62% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Synapse at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Team Synapseavg 72.9¢ | $395.92 | $494.03 | +$98.11 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Team Synapseavg 52.6¢ | $171.18 | $217.91 | +$46.73 | 59% 30682-21402 (52084) |
 poshposh | Team Synapseavg 52.6¢ | $62.32 | $110.78 | +$48.47 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190 | Team Synapseavg 51¢ | $100 | $98.01 | -$1.99 | 61% 305-193 (498) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | SOLIDavg 31.2¢ | $103.86 | $40.12 | -$63.74 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
Invested
$395.92
Value
$494.03
PnL
+$98.11
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$171.18
Value
$217.91
PnL
+$46.73
Record
59%
30682-21402 (52084)
poshposhInvested
$62.32
Value
$110.78
PnL
+$48.47
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$100
Value
$98.01
PnL
-$1.99
Record
61%
305-193 (498)
Invested
$103.86
Value
$40.12
PnL
-$63.74
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.