Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Synapse, while the market favors Power Rangers (59%). 11 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Power Rangers (BO1) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (65%) · Team Synapse at 42¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 12

Team Synapse42¢Power Rangers58¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.4K

Combined PnL

$778.17

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 41.5¢

-28% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Synapse42%

Power Rangers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse11 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares32,360

Combined PnL+$575.95

Power Rangers6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares10,105

Combined PnL+$202.22

Team Synapse — 65%Power Rangers — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Team Synapseavg 60¢	$9.9K	$9.6K	-$249.99	57% 530-402 (932)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Synapseavg 57.2¢	$5.5K	$5.9K	+$412.43	46% 448-518 (966)
RA RandomVibecoder	Power Rangersavg 41.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$49.44	48% 510-560 (1070)
DO DotaBotRebornCTR	Team Synapseavg 47.6¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$355.89	64% 35-20 (55)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 41.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$89.38	56% 18-14 (32)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 41.8¢	$940	$1.0K	+$72.5
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 53¢	$447.23	$464.11	+$16.88
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Power Rangersavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$32.05	48% 32-34 (66)
Skritopoolniy	Power Rangersavg 43¢	$857.63	$877.57	+$19.94	7% 27-368 (395)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 56.1¢	$673.77	$703.2	+$29.44	56% 3895-3063 (6958)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 56.1¢	$531.33	$554.42	+$23.08
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 39.7¢	$142.43	$148.79	+$6.36
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 49.2¢	$689.38	$665.91	-$23.47	54% 428-364 (792)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 51¢	$290.04	$341.23	+$51.19
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 49.2¢	$399.33	$324.67	-$74.66
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 55.7¢	$560.73	$557.65	-$3.08	50% 3536-3500 (7036)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 55.7¢	$388.91	$387.74	-$1.17
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 45¢	$171.82	$169.91	-$1.91
maytopmayCTR	Team Synapseavg 61.7¢	$528.27	$500.88	-$27.39	17% 41-201 (242)
JE jelly2026CTR	Team Synapseavg 59.4¢	$444.33	$459.79	+$15.45	50% 51-51 (102)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Team Synapseavg 57¢	$465.08	$448.76	-$16.32	14% 32-193 (225)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Team Synapseavg 61¢	$306.42	$301.4	-$5.02	55% 51-41 (92)
CA calculate10	Power Rangersavg 39.6¢	$928.79	$269.09	+$94.01	27% 43-116 (159)
poshposhARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 53.6¢	$195.76	$210.6	+$14.84	47% 509-574 (1083)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 53.6¢	$126.93	$140.85	+$13.93
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 40¢	$68.84	$69.75	+$0.91
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 49¢	$119.17	$127.09	+$7.91	27% 178-489 (667)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 49¢	$65.17	$72.49	+$7.31
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 45¢	$54	$54.6	+$0.6
HY hydra1248CTR	Team Synapseavg 47.6¢	$118.61	$118.41	-$0.2	78% 123-34 (157)
alpheclabs2CTR	Team Synapseavg 49.3¢	$651.24	$115.93	+$82.22	45% 188-231 (419)
CI cigarettesCTR	Team Synapseavg 51¢	$102	$109	+$7	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 56¢	$95.09	$93.29	-$1.8	46% 158-182 (340)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 47¢	$47	$52.5	+$5.5
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 56¢	$48.1	$40.8	-$7.3
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Power Rangersavg 37.6¢	$41.67	$46.31	+$4.64	41% 247-360 (607)
LR lryyy<$100	Power Rangersavg 40.3¢	$31.35	$33.48	+$2.13	44% 375-478 (853)
TE testBruno2CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 57¢	$56.96	$17.84	+$1.88	48% 36-39 (75)

Sisyphus-CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$9,853.73

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$249.99

Record

57%

530-402 (932)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$5,491.77

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$412.43

Record

46%

448-518 (966)

RandomVibecoder

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,748.88

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$49.44

Record

48%

510-560 (1070)

DotaBotRebornCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,307.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$355.89

Record

64%

35-20 (55)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,387.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$89.38

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$94041.8¢+$72.5

Team Synapse$447.2353¢+$16.88

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$32.05

Record

48%

32-34 (66)

Skritopoolniy

Power Rangers

Invested

$857.63

Value

$877.57

PnL

+$19.94

Record

27-368 (395)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$673.77

Value

$703.2

PnL

+$29.44

Record

56%

3895-3063 (6958)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$531.3356.1¢+$23.08

Power Rangers$142.4339.7¢+$6.36

NotJumpARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$689.38

Value

$665.91

PnL

-$23.47

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$290.0451¢+$51.19

Power Rangers$399.3349.2¢-$74.66

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$560.73

Value

$557.65

PnL

-$3.08

Record

50%

3536-3500 (7036)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$388.9155.7¢-$1.17

Power Rangers$171.8245¢-$1.91

maytopmayCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$528.27

Value

$500.88

PnL

-$27.39

Record

17%

41-201 (242)

jelly2026CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$444.33

Value

$459.79

PnL

+$15.45

Record

50%

51-51 (102)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$465.08

Value

$448.76

PnL

-$16.32

Record

14%

32-193 (225)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$306.42

Value

$301.4

PnL

-$5.02

Record

55%

51-41 (92)

calculate10

Power Rangers

Invested

$928.79

Value

$269.09

PnL

+$94.01

Record

27%

43-116 (159)

poshposhARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$195.76

Value

$210.6

PnL

+$14.84

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$126.9353.6¢+$13.93

Power Rangers$68.8440¢+$0.91

SlickRick123ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$119.17

Value

$127.09

PnL

+$7.91

Record

27%

178-489 (667)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$65.1749¢+$7.31

Power Rangers$5445¢+$0.6

hydra1248CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$118.61

Value

$118.41

PnL

-$0.2

Record

78%

123-34 (157)

alpheclabs2CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$651.24

Value

$115.93

PnL

+$82.22

Record

45%

188-231 (419)

cigarettesCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$102

Value

$109

PnL

+$7

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

GaditimaARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$95.09

Value

$93.29

PnL

-$1.8

Record

46%

158-182 (340)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$4747¢+$5.5

Team Synapse$48.156¢-$7.3

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$41.67

Value

$46.31

PnL

+$4.64

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

lryyy<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$31.35

Value

$33.48

PnL

+$2.13

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

testBruno2CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$56.96

Value

$17.84

PnL

+$1.88

Record

48%

36-39 (75)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.