Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Nemiga Gaming (BO1) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (65%) · Nemiga Gaming at 83¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 12

Team Synapse18¢Nemiga Gaming82¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 82.5¢

+19% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

11 of 17 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Synapse18%

Nemiga Gaming83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming11 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares24,184

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Team Synapse6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares10,776

Combined PnL-$907.5

Nemiga Gaming — 65%Team Synapse — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Nemiga Gamingavg 67.8¢	$8.6K	$10.5K	+$1.9K	57% 531-402 (933)
GX gxxyy	Nemiga Gamingavg 81.2¢	$4.2K	$4.7K	+$485.33	69% 491-222 (713)
DO DotaBotReborn	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.5¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$404.04	64% 36-20 (56)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Nemiga Gamingavg 63.4¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$300.53	46% 448-520 (968)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 64.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$28.82	14% 32-193 (225)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 64.4¢	$811.36	$882.18	+$70.82
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 33.2¢	$432	$390	-$42
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	Team Synapseavg 32¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$77.32	50% 34-34 (68)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 30.8¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$766.81	48% 513-560 (1073)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.9¢	$723.21	$655	+$2	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.9¢	$330.5	$437.5	+$107
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 40.3¢	$292.02	$217.5	-$105
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nemiga Gamingavg 75.1¢	$616.47	$644.96	+$28.49	56% 3900-3066 (6966)
maytopmay	Nemiga Gamingavg 70.2¢	$461.73	$460.6	-$1.13	17% 42-201 (243)
PO PourpelNourpel	Nemiga Gamingavg 65¢	$303.46	$326.81	+$23.34	55% 52-43 (95)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 21.1¢	$300.73	$211.79	-$8.23	28% 46-118 (164)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 75¢	$104.61	$115	+$18.98
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 21.1¢	$116.48	$96.79	-$27.21
AU autob2	Nemiga Gamingavg 78.6¢	$143.5	$132.13	-$11.38	49% 33-34 (67)
poshposh	Nemiga Gamingavg 82.8¢	$108.04	$95.32	-$12.71	47% 522-581 (1103)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.3¢	$120.78	$77.76	+$27.18	50% 3540-3500 (7040)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.3¢	$36.98	$49	+$28.94
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 10.1¢	$30.52	$28.76	-$1.76
MR MrConsistencyCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 18.4¢	$68.32	$64.81	-$3.5	33% 11-22 (33)
PO pol2131CTR	Team Synapseavg 19.5¢	$117	$63	-$54	43% 26-34 (60)
LR lryyy<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 75.5¢	$40.7	$41.91	+$1.21	44% 384-486 (870)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 31.4¢	$20.65	$19.76	-$0.89	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 87¢	$19.99	$19.53	-$0.46	15% 29-166 (195)
TE testBruno2CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 15.1¢	$20.88	$12.07	-$4.97	49% 38-39 (77)

Sisyphus-

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$8,627.9

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

57%

531-402 (933)

gxxyy

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$4,215.97

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$485.33

Record

69%

491-222 (713)

DotaBotReborn

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,424.92

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$404.04

Record

64%

36-20 (56)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$300.53

Record

46%

448-520 (968)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,243.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$28.82

Record

14%

32-193 (225)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$811.3664.4¢+$70.82

Team Synapse$43233.2¢-$42

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,249.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$77.32

Record

50%

34-34 (68)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,775.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$766.81

Record

48%

513-560 (1073)

NotJumpARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$723.21

Value

$655

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$330.552.9¢+$107

Team Synapse$292.0240.3¢-$105

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$616.47

Value

$644.96

PnL

+$28.49

Record

56%

3900-3066 (6966)

maytopmay

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$461.73

Value

$460.6

PnL

-$1.13

Record

17%

42-201 (243)

PourpelNourpel

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$303.46

Value

$326.81

PnL

+$23.34

Record

55%

52-43 (95)

calculate10ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$300.73

Value

$211.79

PnL

-$8.23

Record

28%

46-118 (164)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$104.6175¢+$18.98

Team Synapse$116.4821.1¢-$27.21

autob2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$143.5

Value

$132.13

PnL

-$11.38

Record

49%

33-34 (67)

poshposh

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$108.04

Value

$95.32

PnL

-$12.71

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$120.78

Value

$77.76

PnL

+$27.18

Record

50%

3540-3500 (7040)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$36.9868.3¢+$28.94

Team Synapse$30.5210.1¢-$1.76

MrConsistencyCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$68.32

Value

$64.81

PnL

-$3.5

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

pol2131CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$117

Value

$63

PnL

-$54

Record

43%

26-34 (60)

lryyy<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$40.7

Value

$41.91

PnL

+$1.21

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$20.65

Value

$19.76

PnL

-$0.89

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$19.99

Value

$19.53

PnL

-$0.46

Record

15%

29-166 (195)

testBruno2CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$20.88

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$4.97

Record

49%

38-39 (77)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

11 of 17 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.