Dota 2: Team Synapse vs CyberHero (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (86%) · CyberHero at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
CyberHero
7
CyberHero 86%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$196.3
66.3¢ → 95¢
+43% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralCyberHero at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | CyberHeroavg 63.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$402.88 | 49% 1311-1390 (2701) |
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | CyberHeroavg 50¢ | $525 | $569.17 | +$44.17 | 50% 1122-1124 (2246) |
| └ CyberHero leg | CyberHeroavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $430.5 | +$168 | |
| └ Team Synapse leg | Team Synapseavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $138.67 | -$123.83 | |
 BignumCTR | Team Synapseavg 36.7¢ | $900.48 | $234.67 | -$627.9 | 6% 13-216 (229) |
AM ameisgoat11 | CyberHeroavg 86.8¢ | $252.94 | $153.59 | +$2.99 | 43% 855-1138 (1993) |
JU JuiceFarm<$100 | CyberHeroavg 70.1¢ | $47.89 | $61.47 | +$13.58 | 54% 59-50 (109) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | CyberHeroavg 82¢ | $42.95 | $49.95 | +$7 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
SU suntori<$100 | CyberHeroavg 82.1¢ | $51.83 | $35.66 | +$2.51 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | CyberHeroavg 64.3¢ | $9.65 | $12.3 | +$2.65 | 50% 2177-2197 (4374) |
poshposhInvested
$1,425.41
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$402.88
Record
49%
1311-1390 (2701)
Invested
$525
Value
$569.17
PnL
+$44.17
Record
50%
1122-1124 (2246)
Both legs:
BignumCTRInvested
$900.48
Value
$234.67
PnL
-$627.9
Record
6%
13-216 (229)
Invested
$252.94
Value
$153.59
PnL
+$2.99
Record
43%
855-1138 (1993)
Invested
$47.89
Value
$61.47
PnL
+$13.58
Record
54%
59-50 (109)
Invested
$42.95
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$7
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$51.83
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$2.51
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$9.65
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$2.65
Record
50%
2177-2197 (4374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.