Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (67%) · Spirit Academy at 87¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit Academy87¢Inner Circle13¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit Academy

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 87¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit Academy87%

Inner Circle13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,334

Combined PnL+$214.61

Inner Circle4 traders

Total Value$723.56

Total Shares5,379

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Spirit Academy — 67%Inner Circle — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tolkonevminus2	Spirit Academyavg 82.9¢	$4.4K	$1.9K	+$159.32	42% 50-69 (119)
MA madar78	Spirit Academyavg 79.8¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	+$47.88	42% 36-49 (85)
NO NotJump	Spirit Academyavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	Inner Circleavg 46.6¢	$1.5K	$420.25	$-1.1K	49% 36-37 (73)
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 34.2¢	$313.03	$351.06	+$38.03	27% 182-490 (672)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 46.2¢	$145.14	$248.06	+$102.92
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 34.2¢	$167.89	$103	-$64.89
poshposhARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 32.6¢	$193.29	$208.51	+$15.21	47% 532-590 (1122)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 48.7¢	$86.02	$139.4	+$53.38
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 32.6¢	$107.27	$69.1	-$38.17
Tolkonevminus3CTR	Inner Circleavg 41.5¢	$536.58	$168.21	-$368.37	67% 36-18 (54)
38 38791873984189	Spirit Academyavg 58.3¢	$227.16	$141.35	+$44.07	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	Inner Circleavg 43.7¢	$405.85	$94.71	-$170.76	34% 13-25 (38)
MO motivatorgl	Spirit Academyavg 82¢	$372.37	$53.8	-$22.74	47% 16-18 (34)
PA pauleta23<$100	Spirit Academyavg 67.6¢	$50	$50.62	+$0.62	34% 280-540 (820)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 45.8¢	$56.95	$40.39	-$16.56	65% 136-72 (208)
Skritopoolniy<$100	Spirit Academyavg 54¢	$12.91	$13.63	+$0.72	8% 31-369 (400)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Spirit Academyavg 57¢	$2.9K	$12.96	-$15.25	30% 38-88 (126)

Tolkonevminus2

Spirit Academy

Invested

$4,369.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$159.32

Record

42%

50-69 (119)

madar78

Spirit Academy

Invested

$1,683.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$47.88

Record

42%

36-49 (85)

NotJump

Spirit Academy

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,508.02

Value

$420.25

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

36-37 (73)

SlickRick123ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$313.03

Value

$351.06

PnL

+$38.03

Record

27%

182-490 (672)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$145.1446.2¢+$102.92

Inner Circle$167.8934.2¢-$64.89

poshposhARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$193.29

Value

$208.51

PnL

+$15.21

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$86.0248.7¢+$53.38

Inner Circle$107.2732.6¢-$38.17

Tolkonevminus3CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$536.58

Value

$168.21

PnL

-$368.37

Record

67%

36-18 (54)

38791873984189

Spirit Academy

Invested

$227.16

Value

$141.35

PnL

+$44.07

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

MrConsistencyCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$405.85

Value

$94.71

PnL

-$170.76

Record

34%

13-25 (38)

motivatorgl

Spirit Academy

Invested

$372.37

Value

$53.8

PnL

-$22.74

Record

47%

16-18 (34)

pauleta23<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$50

Value

$50.62

PnL

+$0.62

Record

34%

280-540 (820)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$56.95

Value

$40.39

PnL

-$16.56

Record

65%

136-72 (208)

Skritopoolniy<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$12.91

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0.72

Record

31-369 (400)

UNIVERSEMVP

Spirit Academy

Invested

$2,915.43

Value

$12.96

PnL

-$15.25

Record

30%

38-88 (126)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.