Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group A

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (100%) · Spirit Academy at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit Academy91¢Inner Circle9¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit Academy

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$16.94

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 90.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit Academy91%

Inner Circle10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy6 traders

Total Value$682.08

Total Shares719

Combined PnL-$16.94

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Spirit Academyavg 75.9¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$70.9	38% 492-810 (1302)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 75.9¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$180.09
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 18.7¢	$636.51	$527.33	-$109.19
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Spirit Academyavg 50¢	$525	$483	-$42	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 50¢	$262.5	$278.25	+$15.75
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 50¢	$262.5	$204.75	-$57.75
poshposh	Spirit Academyavg 77.8¢	$253.62	$245.68	-$7.93	47% 532-590 (1122)
GA Gaditima	Spirit Academyavg 76.5¢	$116.12	$135.94	+$19.82	46% 161-187 (348)
SL SlickRick123	Spirit Academyavg 80.6¢	$122.12	$121.85	-$0.27	27% 182-490 (672)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Spirit Academyavg 80.2¢	$105.9	$67.76	-$7.36	41% 257-370 (627)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Spirit Academyavg 80¢	$77.7	$60.91	-$16.8	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 80¢	$40	$34	-$6
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 44.8¢	$37.7	$26.91	-$10.8
SU suntori<$100	Spirit Academyavg 77.3¢	$73.31	$58.05	-$11.98	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
LR lryyy<$100	Spirit Academyavg 78.6¢	$62.01	$52.79	-$9.22	44% 389-495 (884)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$2,221.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$70.9

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$1,585.0275.9¢+$180.09

Inner Circle$636.5118.7¢-$109.19

NotJumpARB<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$525

Value

$483

PnL

-$42

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$262.550¢+$15.75

Spirit Academy$262.550¢-$57.75

poshposh

Spirit Academy

Invested

$253.62

Value

$245.68

PnL

-$7.93

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Gaditima

Spirit Academy

Invested

$116.12

Value

$135.94

PnL

+$19.82

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

SlickRick123

Spirit Academy

Invested

$122.12

Value

$121.85

PnL

-$0.27

Record

27%

182-490 (672)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Spirit Academy

Invested

$105.9

Value

$67.76

PnL

-$7.36

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

cigarettesARB<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$77.7

Value

$60.91

PnL

-$16.8

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$4080¢-$6

Inner Circle$37.744.8¢-$10.8

suntori<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$73.31

Value

$58.05

PnL

-$11.98

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

lryyy<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$62.01

Value

$52.79

PnL

-$9.22

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.