Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SOLID, while the market favors Team Synapse (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: SOLID vs Team Synapse - Game 2 Winner

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SOLID (60%) · SOLID at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

SOLID<1¢Team Synapse>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SOLID

Consensus Traders

SOLID 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$233.66

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSOLID at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SOLID

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Team Synapse 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SOLID0%

Team Synapse100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SOLID3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,200

Combined PnL-$278.1

Team Synapse2 traders

Total Value$363.53

Total Shares498

Combined PnL+$44.44

SOLID — 60%Team Synapse — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LudotryasskaCTR	SOLIDavg 58.9¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$241.08	59% 47-33 (80)
MR MrConsistency	Team Synapseavg 89.2¢	$176.86	$192.29	+$15.43	39% 545-841 (1386)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 54.5¢	$177	$189.68	+$12.68	60% 292-191 (483)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 54.5¢	$100	$98.25	-$1.75
└ SOLID leg	SOLIDavg 39.2¢	$77	$91.43	+$14.43
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Team Synapseavg 38¢	$142.23	$171.23	+$29	59% 30091-20813 (50904)
B1 0xb14a...4254CTR	SOLIDavg 62.5¢	$200.02	$161.6	-$38.43	—
poshposhCTR<$100	SOLIDavg 43.5¢	$17.55	$18.96	+$1.41	60% 9374-6357 (15731)

LudotryasskaCTR

SOLID

Invested

$1,684.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$241.08

Record

59%

47-33 (80)

MrConsistency

Team Synapse

Invested

$176.86

Value

$192.29

PnL

+$15.43

Record

39%

545-841 (1386)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$177

Value

$189.68

PnL

+$12.68

Record

60%

292-191 (483)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$10054.5¢-$1.75

SOLID$7739.2¢+$14.43

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Team Synapse

Invested

$142.23

Value

$171.23

PnL

+$29

Record

59%

30091-20813 (50904)

0xb14a...4254CTR

SOLID

Invested

$200.02

Value

$161.6

PnL

-$38.43

Record

—

poshposhCTR<$100

SOLID

Invested

$17.55

Value

$18.96

PnL

+$1.41

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

Research grade

AvoidSOLID at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

SOLID

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Team Synapse 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SOLID wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.