Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rottweilas Latam, while the market favors Mena Warriors (69%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs Mena Warriors - Game 2 Winner
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rottweilas Latam (100%) · Rottweilas Latam at 31¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Rottweilas Latam
4
Rottweilas Latam 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$881.27
14¢ → 30.8¢
+120% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralRottweilas Latam at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Mena Warriors 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Rottweilas Latam. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Rottweilas Latamavg 13.8¢ | $1.7K | $2.4K | +$774.06 | 96% 53-2 (55) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR | Rottweilas Latamavg 12.5¢ | $250 | $403 | +$153 | — |
LR lryyyARB<$100 | Rottweilas Latamavg 37.9¢ | $142.17 | $95.42 | -$46.75 | 50% 171-170 (341) |
| └ Rottweilas Latam leg | Rottweilas Latamavg 37.9¢ | $126.74 | $56.76 | -$69.98 | |
| └ Mena Warriors leg | Mena Warriorsavg 34.6¢ | $15.43 | $38.66 | +$23.23 | |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Rottweilas Latamavg 41¢ | $70.52 | $29.23 | -$41.29 | 45% 79-95 (174) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Rottweilas Latamavg 25¢ | $18.35 | $13.85 | -$4.5 | 63% 1310-786 (2096) |
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$1,672.34
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$774.06
Record
96%
53-2 (55)
Invested
$250
Value
$403
PnL
+$153
Record
—
Invested
$142.17
Value
$95.42
PnL
-$46.75
Record
50%
171-170 (341)
Both legs:
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$70.52
Value
$29.23
PnL
-$41.29
Record
45%
79-95 (174)
Invested
$18.35
Value
$13.85
PnL
-$4.5
Record
63%
1310-786 (2096)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.