Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rottweilas Latam, while the market favors Level Up Academy (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs Level Up Academy (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group B

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rottweilas Latam (50%) · Rottweilas Latam at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29

Rottweilas Latam<1¢Level Up Academy>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rottweilas Latam

Consensus Traders

Rottweilas Latam 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

23¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRottweilas Latam at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rottweilas Latam

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Level Up Academy 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rottweilas Latam0%

Level Up Academy100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rottweilas Latam3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,748

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Level Up Academy3 traders

Total Value$407.14

Total Shares1,044

Combined PnL-$448.93

Rottweilas Latam — 50%Level Up Academy — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Barbozaaa321CTR	Rottweilas Latamavg 18¢	$568.77	$1.9K	+$1.4K	51% 338-325 (663)
0X 0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492CTR	Rottweilas Latamavg 28.2¢	$816.99	$1.8K	+$950.85	71% 71-29 (100)
CL claudesportsCTR	Rottweilas Latamavg 24¢	$165.57	$531.22	+$365.64	35% 346-639 (985)
poshposhARB<$100	Level Up Academyavg 56.4¢	$427.24	$354.9	-$72.34	60% 9411-6401 (15812)
└ Level Up Academy leg	Level Up Academyavg 56.4¢	$369.64	$255.64	-$114
└ Rottweilas Latam leg	Rottweilas Latamavg 35.4¢	$57.6	$99.26	+$41.66
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	Level Up Academyavg 92.9¢	$701	$294.23	-$406.77	61% 295-191 (486)
RA RandomVibecoder	Level Up Academyavg 67.9¢	$142.17	$81.71	-$60.46	48% 789-841 (1630)
JohnLKellyJr<$100	Level Up Academyavg 57.6¢	$12.9	$31.2	+$18.3	53% 1207-1086 (2293)

Barbozaaa321CTR

Rottweilas Latam

Invested

$568.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

338-325 (663)

0xb14AC3a7E4b56C26afD5cd065C500fA0A2Be4254-1769811390492CTR

Rottweilas Latam

Invested

$816.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$950.85

Record

71%

71-29 (100)

claudesportsCTR

Rottweilas Latam

Invested

$165.57

Value

$531.22

PnL

+$365.64

Record

35%

346-639 (985)

poshposhARB<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$427.24

Value

$354.9

PnL

-$72.34

Record

60%

9411-6401 (15812)

Both legs:

Level Up Academy$369.6456.4¢-$114

Rottweilas Latam$57.635.4¢+$41.66

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

Level Up Academy

Invested

$701

Value

$294.23

PnL

-$406.77

Record

61%

295-191 (486)

RandomVibecoder

Level Up Academy

Invested

$142.17

Value

$81.71

PnL

-$60.46

Record

48%

789-841 (1630)

JohnLKellyJr<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$12.9

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$18.3

Record

53%

1207-1086 (2293)

Research grade

AvoidRottweilas Latam at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Rottweilas Latam

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Level Up Academy 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rottweilas Latam wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.