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poshposhCTRpotn9ki
alpheclabs2CTRpotn9kipotn9kiRed JohnRed John
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was potn9ki — but Red John won instead.
Dota 2: Red John vs potn9ki - Game 1 Winner
Resolved Red John. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held potn9ki. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
potn9ki 100%
Total Value
$0.05
Combined PnL
-$335.38
Smart Money Signal
potn9ki
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Red John100%
potn9ki0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
potn9ki3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,943
Combined PnL-$408.08
Red John2 traders
Total Value$0.05
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$72.7
potn9ki — 60%Red John — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
poshposhCTR | potn9kiavg 30.1¢ | $125.71 | — | -$125.71 | 49% 1349-1428 (2777) |
alpheclabs2CTR | potn9kiavg 16.1¢ | $267 | — | -$267 | 45% 373-460 (833) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | potn9kiavg 28.5¢ | $15.37 | — | -$15.37 | 46% 998-1194 (2192) |
NO NotJump | Red Johnavg 50¢ | $525 | $0.05 | +$0 | 50% 1156-1164 (2320) |
NO nomoredream | Red Johnavg 94.7¢ | $1.3K | — | +$72.7 | 44% 76-96 (172) |
poshposhCTRInvested
$125.71
Value
—
PnL
-$125.71
Record
49%
1349-1428 (2777)
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$267
Value
—
PnL
-$267
Record
45%
373-460 (833)
LR
lryyyCTR<$100Invested
$15.37
Value
—
PnL
-$15.37
Record
46%
998-1194 (2192)
NO
NotJumpInvested
$525
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1156-1164 (2320)
NO
nomoredreamInvested
$1,316.36
Value
—
PnL
+$72.7
Record
44%
76-96 (172)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe38acb01...8ed68c
Slug
dota2-redjoh-p-2026-11-15-game1