Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Synapse, while the market favors Power Rangers (84%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (50%) · Team Synapse at 16¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

Power Rangers84¢Team Synapse16¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 16¢

-62% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Power Rangers84%

Team Synapse16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares23,979

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Power Rangers7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares12,810

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Team Synapse — 50%Power Rangers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Synapseavg 46.8¢	$7.4K	$4.8K	$-2.6K	47% 639-734 (1373)
Sunshine.Smile	Power Rangersavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$0.69	58% 1983-1450 (3433)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	Power Rangersavg 65.4¢	$5.3K	$1.6K	$-1.4K	68% 625-299 (924)
SI Sisyphus-	Power Rangersavg 48.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$44.41	55% 791-650 (1441)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Power Rangersavg 46¢	$920	$1.0K	+$80	43% 72-96 (168)
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 33¢	$660	$1.0K	+$340	53% 207-183 (390)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 33¢	$330	$665	+$335
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 33¢	$330	$335	+$5
SL SlickRick123	Power Rangersavg 55.8¢	$567.37	$703.6	+$136.22	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Team Synapseavg 28¢	$1.8K	$565.65	$-1.2K	63% 107-63 (170)
LR lryyy	Power Rangersavg 59.8¢	$247.56	$237.96	-$9.6	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Team Synapseavg 52.6¢	$613.82	$93.29	-$520.53	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
XU xuxuntaoCTR	Team Synapseavg 47¢	$243.64	$41.48	-$202.15	61% 117-74 (191)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 38.1¢	$84.44	$26.62	-$57.82	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
maytopmay<$100	Power Rangersavg 55.8¢	$22.8	$20.44	-$2.36	61% 311-201 (512)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 36.1¢	$12.85	$1.45	-$3.41	47% 4175-4797 (8972)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 57¢	$10	$1.4	-$8.6	65% 24597-12971 (37568)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$7,380.58

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

47%

639-734 (1373)

Sunshine.Smile

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,205.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$0.69

Record

58%

1983-1450 (3433)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

Power Rangers

Invested

$5,346.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

68%

625-299 (924)

Sisyphus-

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,166.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.41

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Power Rangers

Invested

$920

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$80

Record

43%

72-96 (168)

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$660

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$340

Record

53%

207-183 (390)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$33033¢+$335

Power Rangers$33033¢+$5

SlickRick123

Power Rangers

Invested

$567.37

Value

$703.6

PnL

+$136.22

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,762.38

Value

$565.65

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

63%

107-63 (170)

lryyy

Power Rangers

Invested

$247.56

Value

$237.96

PnL

-$9.6

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$613.82

Value

$93.29

PnL

-$520.53

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

xuxuntaoCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$243.64

Value

$41.48

PnL

-$202.15

Record

61%

117-74 (191)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$84.44

Value

$26.62

PnL

-$57.82

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

maytopmay<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$22.8

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$2.36

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

shiifooCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$12.85

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$3.41

Record

47%

4175-4797 (8972)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$10

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$8.6

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.