Dota 2: Power Rangers vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (67%) · PlayTime at 65¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 8

Power Rangers36¢PlayTime64¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 67%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.1K

Combined PnL

-$191.39

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

10 of 15 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Power Rangers36%

PlayTime65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime10 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares32,363

Combined PnL-$429.04

Power Rangers5 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares20,441

Combined PnL+$237.65

PlayTime — 67%Power Rangers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	PlayTimeavg 61.3¢	$6.7K	$7.2K	+$551.49	48% 855-909 (1764)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Power Rangersavg 36.5¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$75.77	58% 959-687 (1646)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	PlayTimeavg 69.7¢	$6.1K	$3.7K	-$957.58	68% 117-56 (173)
Tolkonevminus2	PlayTimeavg 62.4¢	$4.5K	$2.5K	+$7.03	63% 107-63 (170)
47 0x478c...2f0c	PlayTimeavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$496.54	—
Medo3D	PlayTimeavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$392.86	41% 182-264 (446)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 64.2¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$201.3	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 64.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$86.71
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 29.5¢	$772.08	$1.1K	+$288.01
Sunshine.Smile	PlayTimeavg 66.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$75.53	58% 1983-1450 (3433)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Power Rangersavg 30.3¢	$987.15	$1.2K	+$203.02	55% 791-650 (1441)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 71.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$157.26	48% 293-320 (613)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 71.2¢	$924.53	$772.15	-$152.38
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 41¢	$400	$395.12	-$4.88
OM omnibus-076daa	PlayTimeavg 83.7¢	$1.1K	$863.6	-$236.5	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	Power Rangersavg 35.1¢	$697.46	$803.97	+$106.52	52% 214-194 (408)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 72.5¢	$763.62	$751.61	-$12	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 72.5¢	$559.11	$516.62	-$42.48
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 28.7¢	$204.51	$234.99	+$30.48
CA calculate10	PlayTimeavg 68.2¢	$4.4K	$727.82	-$589.92	54% 1335-1152 (2487)
PO PourpelNourpelARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 61¢	$399.84	$632.92	+$233.08	53% 668-598 (1266)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 15¢	$140.85	$380.3	+$239.45
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 61¢	$258.99	$252.62	-$6.37
BA BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 65.2¢	$2.3K	$326.12	+$52.64	62% 623-384 (1007)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 65.2¢	$184.65	$168.47	+$68.08
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 35.6¢	$138.75	$157.65	-$15.44
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 61.3¢	$301.23	$309.93	+$16.02	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 61.3¢	$209.49	$229.09	+$19.56
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 34.4¢	$84.38	$80.84	-$3.54
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 74.4¢	$317.98	$280.99	-$36.99	54% 3572-3080 (6652)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 74.4¢	$217.98	$196.38	-$21.6
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 39¢	$100	$84.62	-$15.38
R2 r2d2v2	PlayTimeavg 72¢	$202.9	$178.87	-$24.03	54% 303-256 (559)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 35.6¢	$160.98	$154.57	-$6.41	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 35.6¢	$83.68	$84.53	+$0.85
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 70.6¢	$77.31	$70.04	-$7.26
maytopmayCTR	Power Rangersavg 35.5¢	$142.24	$146.04	+$3.8	61% 311-201 (512)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 66.8¢	$129.45	$138.6	+$9.15	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 28.9¢	$63.52	$72.44	+$8.92
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 66.8¢	$65.93	$66.16	+$0.23
LR lryyy<$100	PlayTimeavg 60¢	$83.12	$89.72	+$6.6	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.83	+$0.07	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

RandomVibecoder

PlayTime

Invested

$6,693.19

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$551.49

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$5,400

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$75.77

Record

58%

959-687 (1646)

UNIVERSEMVP

PlayTime

Invested

$6,146.97

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$957.58

Record

68%

117-56 (173)

Tolkonevminus2

PlayTime

Invested

$4,499.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$7.03

Record

63%

107-63 (170)

0x478c...2f0c

PlayTime

Invested

$2,016.43

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$496.54

Record

—

Medo3D

PlayTime

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$392.86

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$1,957.38

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$201.3

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

PlayTime$1,185.2964.2¢-$86.71

Power Rangers$772.0829.5¢+$288.01

Sunshine.Smile

PlayTime

Invested

$1,518.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$75.53

Record

58%

1983-1450 (3433)

Sisyphus-CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$987.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$203.02

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$1,324.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$157.26

Record

48%

293-320 (613)

Both legs:

PlayTime$924.5371.2¢-$152.38

Power Rangers$40041¢-$4.88

omnibus-076daa

PlayTime

Invested

$1,100.1

Value

$863.6

PnL

-$236.5

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$697.46

Value

$803.97

PnL

+$106.52

Record

52%

214-194 (408)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$763.62

Value

$751.61

PnL

-$12

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

PlayTime$559.1172.5¢-$42.48

Power Rangers$204.5128.7¢+$30.48

calculate10

PlayTime

Invested

$4,405.04

Value

$727.82

PnL

-$589.92

Record

54%

1335-1152 (2487)

PourpelNourpelARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$399.84

Value

$632.92

PnL

+$233.08

Record

53%

668-598 (1266)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$140.8515¢+$239.45

PlayTime$258.9961¢-$6.37

BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$2,317.68

Value

$326.12

PnL

+$52.64

Record

62%

623-384 (1007)

Both legs:

PlayTime$184.6565.2¢+$68.08

Power Rangers$138.7535.6¢-$15.44

38791873984189ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$301.23

Value

$309.93

PnL

+$16.02

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

PlayTime$209.4961.3¢+$19.56

Power Rangers$84.3834.4¢-$3.54

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$317.98

Value

$280.99

PnL

-$36.99

Record

54%

3572-3080 (6652)

Both legs:

PlayTime$217.9874.4¢-$21.6

Power Rangers$10039¢-$15.38

r2d2v2

PlayTime

Invested

$202.9

Value

$178.87

PnL

-$24.03

Record

54%

303-256 (559)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$160.98

Value

$154.57

PnL

-$6.41

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$83.6835.6¢+$0.85

PlayTime$77.3170.6¢-$7.26

maytopmayCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$142.24

Value

$146.04

PnL

+$3.8

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$129.45

Value

$138.6

PnL

+$9.15

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$63.5228.9¢+$8.92

PlayTime$65.9366.8¢+$0.23

lryyy<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$83.12

Value

$89.72

PnL

+$6.6

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

10 of 15 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.