Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Power Rangers, while the market favors Nemiga Gaming (80%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Power Rangers (43%) · Power Rangers at 21¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 9

Power Rangers21¢Nemiga Gaming79¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Power Rangers

Consensus Traders

Power Rangers 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.6K

Combined PnL

$31.54

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 20.5¢

-51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPower Rangers at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Power Rangers

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga Gaming 80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Power Rangers21%

Nemiga Gaming80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Power Rangers6 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares30,922

Combined PnL+$770.56

Nemiga Gaming8 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares12,536

Combined PnL-$739.02

Power Rangers — 43%Nemiga Gaming — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Power Rangersavg 45.1¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$8.4	59% 1035-727 (1762)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.5¢	$5.3K	$4.3K	-$995.8	64% 131-74 (205)
Medo3DCTR	Power Rangersavg 42.9¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$298.3	41% 198-288 (486)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Power Rangersavg 29.3¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$445.51	46% 680-798 (1478)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 42¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	$-1.0K	48% 895-954 (1849)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 42¢	$2.2K	$1.1K	$-1.1K
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 66.1¢	$515.05	$619.22	+$104.16
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Power Rangersavg 63¢	$878.48	$926.92	+$48.44	49% 583-595 (1178)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Nemiga Gamingavg 67.8¢	$1.1K	$891.37	-$207.29	55% 3929-3278 (7207)
CA calculate10	Nemiga Gamingavg 61.7¢	$1.2K	$857.99	-$47.31	54% 1396-1198 (2594)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Nemiga Gamingavg 61.6¢	$3.1K	$747.95	+$302.93	61% 660-424 (1084)
PA pauleta23	Nemiga Gamingavg 57.9¢	$430	$598.06	+$168.06	65% 25726-13839 (39565)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 61.4¢	$376.56	$282.62	-$93.93	53% 15722-13878 (29600)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 42.7¢	$102.72	$191.14	+$88.42
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 61.4¢	$273.84	$91.49	-$182.35
PO PourpelNourpelARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 63.3¢	$284.95	$282.44	-$2.51	51% 705-669 (1374)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 63.3¢	$159.79	$164.05	+$4.25
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 47.2¢	$159.78	$118.39	-$6.76
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Power Rangersavg 67¢	$225	$223.32	-$1.68	55% 321-267 (588)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Nemiga Gamingavg 59.3¢	$118.22	$143.42	+$25.19	46% 33759-39427 (73186)
38 38791873984189	Nemiga Gamingavg 57.3¢	$122.64	$135.3	+$12.66	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
LR lryyy<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 56.8¢	$52.4	$54.93	+$2.53	48% 40299-43258 (83557)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 55¢	$18.5	$6.9	-$11.6	50% 24101-24191 (48292)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$5,904.12

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$8.4

Record

59%

1035-727 (1762)

UNIVERSEMVP

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$5,254.78

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$995.8

Record

64%

131-74 (205)

Medo3DCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,540.12

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$298.3

Record

41%

198-288 (486)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,285.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$445.51

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,703.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

48%

895-954 (1849)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$2,188.3642¢$-1.1K

Nemiga Gaming$515.0566.1¢+$104.16

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$878.48

Value

$926.92

PnL

+$48.44

Record

49%

583-595 (1178)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,098.66

Value

$891.37

PnL

-$207.29

Record

55%

3929-3278 (7207)

calculate10

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,204.22

Value

$857.99

PnL

-$47.31

Record

54%

1396-1198 (2594)

BackTestEoCaraio

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,050.09

Value

$747.95

PnL

+$302.93

Record

61%

660-424 (1084)

pauleta23

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$430

Value

$598.06

PnL

+$168.06

Record

65%

25726-13839 (39565)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$376.56

Value

$282.62

PnL

-$93.93

Record

53%

15722-13878 (29600)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$102.7242.7¢+$88.42

Power Rangers$273.8461.4¢-$182.35

PourpelNourpelARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$284.95

Value

$282.44

PnL

-$2.51

Record

51%

705-669 (1374)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$159.7963.3¢+$4.25

Power Rangers$159.7847.2¢-$6.76

r2d2v2CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$225

Value

$223.32

PnL

-$1.68

Record

55%

321-267 (588)

ferrariChampions2026

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$118.22

Value

$143.42

PnL

+$25.19

Record

46%

33759-39427 (73186)

38791873984189

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$122.64

Value

$135.3

PnL

+$12.66

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

lryyy<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$52.4

Value

$54.93

PnL

+$2.53

Record

48%

40299-43258 (83557)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$18.5

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$11.6

Record

50%

24101-24191 (48292)

Research grade

AvoidPower Rangers at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Power Rangers

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga Gaming 80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Power Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.