Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga Gaming, while the market favors Power Rangers (62%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (27%) · Nemiga Gaming at 39¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Power Rangers62¢Nemiga Gaming38¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 27%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$674.81

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 38.5¢

-25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Power Rangers62%

Nemiga Gaming39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,352

Combined PnL-$754.26

Power Rangers8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,412

Combined PnL+$79.45

Nemiga Gaming — 27%Power Rangers — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plustiCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 53¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$750	44% 23-29 (52)
Vladooos	Power Rangersavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.39	68% 147-70 (217)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 53.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$30.36	53% 14833-13045 (27878)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 53.4¢	$633.28	$723.79	+$90.51
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 43.9¢	$539.29	$479.13	-$60.16
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 52.7¢	$464.09	$461.42	-$2.67	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 52.7¢	$238.06	$275.65	+$37.59
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 47.5¢	$226.03	$185.77	-$40.26
FE ferrariChampions2026	Power Rangersavg 49.1¢	$299.44	$371.06	+$71.61	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 60.3¢	$162.16	$173.76	+$11.6	54% 1396-1199 (2595)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 60.3¢	$105.5	$109.38	+$3.88
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 33¢	$56.66	$64.38	+$7.73
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 64.9¢	$169.52	$145.69	-$23.83	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 64.9¢	$100.32	$96.56	-$3.75
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 52.8¢	$69.2	$49.13	-$20.08
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Power Rangersavg 48.2¢	$102.65	$130.85	+$28.2	55% 3930-3278 (7208)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 29¢	$93.57	$122.58	-$3.23	47% 255-289 (544)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Power Rangersavg 73¢	$91.89	$78.05	-$33.36	65% 2215-1212 (3427)
CI cigarettes<$100	Power Rangersavg 39¢	$19.5	$31.25	+$11.75	50% 66257-66785 (133042)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Power Rangersavg 54¢	$26.7	$26.25	-$0.45	52% 6198-5720 (11918)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 54¢	$24	$22.96	-$1.03	51% 28817-28169 (56986)
LR lryyy<$100	Power Rangersavg 39¢	$8.58	$13.75	+$5.17	48% 40305-43263 (83568)
GA Gaditima<$100	Power Rangersavg 71¢	$8.53	$7.44	-$1.09	47% 8793-9983 (18776)

plustiCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,649.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$750

Record

44%

23-29 (52)

Vladooos

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,461.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$2.39

Record

68%

147-70 (217)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,172.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30.36

Record

53%

14833-13045 (27878)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$633.2853.4¢+$90.51

Nemiga Gaming$539.2943.9¢-$60.16

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$464.09

Value

$461.42

PnL

-$2.67

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$238.0652.7¢+$37.59

Nemiga Gaming$226.0347.5¢-$40.26

ferrariChampions2026

Power Rangers

Invested

$299.44

Value

$371.06

PnL

+$71.61

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

calculate10ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$162.16

Value

$173.76

PnL

+$11.6

Record

54%

1396-1199 (2595)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$105.560.3¢+$3.88

Nemiga Gaming$56.6633¢+$7.73

38791873984189ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$169.52

Value

$145.69

PnL

-$23.83

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$100.3264.9¢-$3.75

Nemiga Gaming$69.252.8¢-$20.08

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Power Rangers

Invested

$102.65

Value

$130.85

PnL

+$28.2

Record

55%

3930-3278 (7208)

glennyorkshireCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$93.57

Value

$122.58

PnL

-$3.23

Record

47%

255-289 (544)

darkumbreon88<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$91.89

Value

$78.05

PnL

-$33.36

Record

65%

2215-1212 (3427)

cigarettes<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$19.5

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$11.75

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$26.7

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$24

Value

$22.96

PnL

-$1.03

Record

51%

28817-28169 (56986)

lryyy<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$8.58

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$5.17

Record

48%

40305-43263 (83568)

Gaditima<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$8.53

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$1.09

Record

47%

8793-9983 (18776)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.